Uranium Stocks Surge on Kazakh Tax Revision

IGO & Wyloo hit pause on downstream battery plant ambitions

The Pre-Start

  • Kazakhstan announced a revised Mineral Extraction Tax (“MET”) for in-country uranium production (KAP). Increased rates are subject to production volumes and spot price….. See Kazakh uranium section below

  • Aurelia Metals say they achieved the higher end of guidance at 65koz in FY24, cash in June qtr grew $10m while developing Federation (AMI)

  • Macmahon, Calidus’ contractor, said campaign processing will now take place, while it remains in discussions with receivers and managers (MAH)

  • Alumina provided preliminary numbers, with adjusted EBITDA ~$185m, realising a sales price 10% higher than the previous quarter (AWC)

  • West African produced 51koz in Q2, with two-thirds coming from underground. WAF is on track for the upper end of guidance (WAF)

  • Ora Banda approved FID on Sand King, which requires $39m in capex, with a max drawdown of $32m. Stoping commences March 25’ (OBM)

  • De Grey shared the Hemi Regional scoping study, which would add an average of 142kozpa between years 4-9 to Hemi, with an NPV5 of $300m and a 3.5-year payback (DEG)

  • EcoGraf completed a benchmarking study on its purification process, which it deemed positive, with it now sending customer samples (EGR)

  • Aeris updated FY24 guidance, with Tritton & Cracow meeting targets while Mt Colin fell short due to fewer than planned tolling slots (AIS)

  • Pantoro produced 21koz over the quarter, closing with $104m in cash/bullion, claiming to have earned $6.7m from operations (PNR)

  • Wildcat ended the quarter with $77m (WC8)

  • Mineral Commodities is in halt following a maritime incident near its Tormin mineral sands project in South Africa (MRC)

High Grade It

  • The battery metals downturn has made IGO & Andrew Forrest’s Wyloo put grand plans for a processing plant in Kwinana on ice (West)

  • Record profit for Zijin on strong production and commodity prices (MiningNews)

  • BHP is facing cost & schedule hurdles with its copper growth plans in South Australia & is moving to strengthen the management team (AFR)

  • Receivers for Calidus have been forced to shutter Warrawoona while they hunt to find a buyer for the collapsed business (West)

  • Andrew Forrest is considering sacking the company’s external lawyers who presided over the surveillance of former employees (AFR)

  • Iron ore’s US $100 floor is at risk of collapse with a jump in supply brewing, as large projects look to come online (Bloomberg)

  • China once again holds the key to copper's fortunes as the market waits for the world's largest buyer to shake off its property woes (Reuters)

  • APA Group will spend $20m to upgrade a Queensland pipeline to bring new gas from Senex’s $1b expansion (The Australian)

  • Sprott said its new physical copper fund will be too small to have an impact on global availability, despite past controversy (Bloomberg)

  • Geoff Jones abruptly stepped down as the chair of Global Lithium, but the lithium aspirant’s boss insists he’s leaving on “good terms” (West)

  • African mines could account for nearly a 10th of the world’s rare earths in five years according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence (Bloomberg)

  • Mexican mining investment should remain stable versus last year at c. $5b but new regulations could hamper the development (Reuters)

  • Alphamin delivered a smooth ramp of Mpama South production, including deferred sales the tin miner made US$70 million EBITDA (AFM)

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • The Federal Court has approved the scheme that will see MMA Offshore acquired by Cyan Renewables (MRM)

  • Receivers & managers at Calidus are transitioning Warrawoona to care & maintenance, while a dual-track recap & sale process starts (CAI)

  • Brightstar has completed its acquisition of Linden Gold (BTR)

  • Nexa Resources is in talks to sell the Pukaqaqa copper project in Peru, reported to have a US$655m price tag (Mining.com)

  • Clara Resources sold its stake in First Tin to Arlington Group for $4.3 million, allowing it to acquire the remaining 60% of Ashford coal from Savannah Goldfields (C7A, SVG)

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • WA1 has raised $60m at $17/share, following its maiden MRE & met work (WA1)

Word on the Decline

  • There’s a bit of buzz in the air about the future strategy of IGO. We suspect a significant reduction in exploration expenditure to be on the agenda, announced with results in August but potentially even guided to before that. Unfortunately, that means jobs

  • IGO’s lack of exploration success has made it an easy target for critics, including ourselves. There are whispers that IGO has had some lithium exploration success in the Forrestania area though. We suppose everyone found a bit of lithium over the last few years…

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Kazakh Uranium

  • News out of Kazakhstan last night could have massive implications on the Term pricing market for uraniumSo what’s happened?

    • Mineral Extraction Tax (MET) will be increasing from 6% to 9% in 2025 (effectively a production royalty)

    • From 2026 onwards, the rate will be scaled up based on production volume (see below). Effectively, anything mined over 4kt of U3O8 (8.8mlbs) will be have a gross royalty of 18%

    • Additionally, if the Weighted Average U3O8 price exceeds US$110/lb, an additional 2.5% royalty will apply

    • Impact for Kazatomprom - Not much, because 75% of Kazatomprom is owned by that state Sovereign Wealth fund, so its just more money retained in-country…..they’re robbing Peter to pay Paul

    • Impact for JV Partners - Possibly massive. JV Partners such as Cameco, Orano and Rosatom will have a higher cost base now for the Kazakh mines

      • This may feed into demand for higher priced Term contracts in a market that is in, what some say, a “structural deficit”

MET Tax rates for volumes and spot price

In the Weeds

  • Fastmarkets 2024 conference painted a pretty bearish outlook for lithium, including that Chinese producers have vertically integrated mines in Zimbabwe now (Fastmarkets)

  • European governments from Prague to Sofia have grand plans to build new nuclear plants, but the question is, who will pay? (Bloomberg)

  • The global lithium sector is eyeing Argentina’s salt flats as Eramet, amongst others, runs tests to commercialise DLE (Reuters)

  • ArcelorMittal South Africa's decision to continue operating its steel unit has boosted the nation’s manufacturing hope (Bloomberg)

  • BYD has defied the EV stock sell-off, leading to investment banks boosting the company’s target price (Bloomberg)

BYD outperformance vs peers

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