Uranium Stocks Surge on Kazakh Cuts

Pilbara & De Grey announce debt facilities, ERA seeks new cash

The Pre-Start

  • Kazatomprom cut 17mlbs of uranium (equiv. to Cigar Lake output and 12% of global production) from previous 2025 production guidance, now forecasting 65-68.9mlbs in U3O8 equiv. They are re-negotiating some sub-soil use agreements and inventories are now at a 9-year low, representing 4 months of production (KAP)

  • Pilbara reported underlying NPAT of $318m (-86%) while adding a new $1b revolving debt facility. Cash reduced by $1.7b over FY24 (PLS)

  • Ramelius declared a 5c dividend after its record net profit of $217m on $451m EBITDA. Its SPR investment is now worth 23c/share (RMS)

  • Gold Road saw group free cash flow of $4.2m for the half on $94m in EBITDA. It’ll pay a 0.5c interim dividend (GOR)

  • ERA are conducting an “investor sounding process” for a $210m equity raise to further fund rehabilitation at the Ranger uranium project in NT (ERA)… Country Liberals have also taken power in NT with a landslide victory against Labor (16.5% swing)

  • Gold Fields missed expectations, with net debt increasing to $1.15b, following higher costs. Guidance was lowered by ~280koz (GFI.JSE)

  • Stanmore refinanced its debt facilities & declared a fully franked 4.4c interim dividend. Revised guidance reduced cash costs by US$5/t (SMR)

  • Base Resources achieved FY24 guidance and earned US$25.7m in free cash flow while advancing Toliara & paying a 6.5c special dividend (BSE)

  • Deutsche Balaton emerged as a substantial holder (6.3%) of Evolution Energy (EV1) while ARCH increased their stake to 25.3%

  • Kingston sold its first gold from Pearse North, with ramp-up underway at Mineral Hill (KSN)

  • Metals X continued its buyback, paying up to 40c/share (MLX)

  • Aussie Super revealed itself as a 5.01% shareholder of South32 (S32)

  • Brazilian Rare Earth’s released assay results from Monte Alto, extending the REE-Nb-Sc-U mineralisation (BRE)

  • Antipa increased the Calibre (Rio JV) gold resource by 19% to 2.5Moz with further copper & silver (AZY)

High Grade It

  • The world’s largest uranium producer, Kazatomprom, slashed its production target, putting upward pressure on uranium (FT) Cameco & NexGen surged 7% & 11% respectively late on Friday

  • Chile’s lithium production is expected to reach 285kt LCE in 2025 (MiningNews)

  • BHP steels itself for more declines in the price of iron ore, as analysts anticipate further falls (The Australian)

  • Dr Bob Johnson is expected enter a plea in his $39m alleged fraud case, which has its origins in a decade old AFP raid (The Australian)

  • Gold held above $2,500/oz after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signalled the time has come for interest-rate cuts (Bloomberg)

  • The number that should scare all Australians (AFR’s Chanticleer) Only 1% of Chinese still mills are currently profitable

  • A native title stoush within native title groups stands in the way of BHP’s SA copper dream (AFR)

  • SQM said greenfields lithium projects are not viable at current prices, while reporting a US$656m net loss for the half (AFR)

  • Mexico advances proposed open-pit mining ban (Mining.com.au)

  • Chris Ellison's daughter earned millions in undisclosed fees after her company was given preferential treatment according to Proxy adviser Ownership Matters (AFR)

  • Safety regulator intervenes after two vehicles collide, causing death on Macmahon site in QLD (West)

  • Zambia’s energy regulator refused the state power utility’s proposal to increase electricity tariffs, with miners importing energy (Bloomberg)

  • A Singapore Exchange announcement divulges a 2018 ASIC investigation of Chris Ellison’s Mineral Resources (West)

  • Pay rise guarantees sought by unions aiming to retake the Pilbara (AFR)

  • Southern Africa’s railways are suddenly getting global attention & attracting billions with a race to secure copper (Bloomberg)

  • Iron ore miners’ pressure points in focus as commodity price wobbles (AFR)

  • Lundin copper miners accept new offer, ending Chile strike (Mining.com)

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Nickel Industries will acquire 60% of 3 nickel mining licenses for ~US$13m upfront plus further payments post-exploration. A resource of 187dmt @ 1.2% Ni & 0.09% Co has been estimated in a portion of the area. The licenses sit ~37km from NIC’s  operations (NIC)

  • The PNX x Kin Mining (now Patronus) merger scheme meeting is tomorrow, with the second court hearing to be held this Friday (PNX)

  • Sprott Capital Partners has secured a backdoor ASX listing, 14 months after a management buyout (AFR, SRT)

  • Arafura announced an MoU with the Saskatchewan Research Council (SRC) to work on diversification of the magnet value supply chain (ARU)

  • Euro Manganese announced an offtake term sheet, intended to make the pricing mechanism & tonnages binding & support financing (EMN)

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • NAIF has approved $150m in debt funding for De Grey’s Hemi gold project, forming part of the planned $1b debt facility (DEG)

  • ERA is in a trading halt to raise capital, seeking a minimum $210m (ERA)

  • Kingston secured an additional $5m in funding via a debt facility from PURE AM (KSN)

  • Volcan, the Peruvian zinc miner that Integra Capital recently acquired, extended the maturity on the majority of its 2026 notes (Bloomberg)

  • Geopacific shared a strategic investment by Lingbao Gold for $2.9m while Deutsche Balaton will convert ~$2.8m of bearer bonds (GPR)

  • Havilah announced an NREO to raise $4m (HAV)

In the Weeds

  • Stagflation and War: The 1970s Redux (Myrmikan Research) A fascintating read that goldbugs will enjoy

  • Iron ore stumbles... China bears return! (Livewire)

  • Possible Asteroid Crater in Western Australia (OzGeology YouTube)

  • Ore Deposits 101 - Part 1 (Sprott YouTube) An 11-part series on ore deposits, hosted by Sprott’s Andrew Jackson

  • Why China is starting a new trade war (WSJ via the Australian)

  • ‘The eagle has landed’: how the world’s second-largest diamond was found (FT)

  • The Plug-In Hybrid Car Starts to Win Over Buyers (WSJ)

  • MinRes’ insto briefing sparked ASIC probe (AFR’s Rear Window)

  • Meta to appeal Andrew Forrest’s ‘strategic victory’ in crusade against scam advertising (The Australian)

  • What You Don’t Know About Sell-side Price Targets (Speedwell Research) There’s an incentive to hug consensus & be biased positively

  • Heavy rains will threaten 25% of global copper projects, mines in Canada and Australia at most risk (MiningNews)

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