U-stocks soar after Cameco results

Gold stocks rebound while MinRes stays in the headlines

The Pre-Start

  • Endeavour Mining has produced 270koz in Q3; to achieve the low end of guidance requires ~45% uplift in Q4. It expects to be at or around the low end (EDV)

  • Barrick’s free cash flow was US$444m in Q3 from 943koz gold (ABX.T) reserves replacement via Reko Diq copper-gold project and the Lumwana expansion project explicitly referenced

  • Cameco reported its Q3 results with higher uranium production outlook at Key Lake mill but lower at Inkai where “maximum annual expected production is now estimated to be approximately 7.Mlbs” vs the previous target of 8.3Mlbs (CCJ.N)

  • Equinox Gold announced commercial production at its Greenstone mine, producing 174koz in the quarter, operating cash flow US$130m (EQX.T)

  • Regis has commenced legal proceedings for a judicial review of the McPhillamys S10 declaration (RRL)

  • Mandalay Resources produced 8.2koz gold and 252t antimony at Costerfield and 9.6koz gold at Björkdal in the quarter, generating $12.9m OCF (MND.T)

  • Metro finalised offtakes for 2025 & ‘26, taking contracted totals to 6.8 & 6.1Mwmt respectively. Pricing to become more short-term as opposed to legacy fixed (MMI)

  • AngloGold Ashanti produced 657koz gold in the quarter generating US$34.7m free cash flow (AGA.N) Tropicana and Sunrise Dam both 14% higher YoY. Together with Gold Fields, the proposed JV over the Takwa mine in Ghana is still awaiting government approval

  • Alamos Gold produced a record 152koz gold in the quarter, generating free cash flow of US$87.5m and increased its full-year guidance (AGI.T, Mining.com)

  • OceanaGold produced 134koz gold and 3.4kt copper in the quarter, generating US$66 million free cash flow, earmarked an “inflection point” (OGC.T)

  • Lundin Mining reports adj. EBITDA of US$458m in the quarter but free cash flow negative US$62 million due to working capital outflow (LUN.T)

  • First Majestic produced 5.5 million silver eq. ounces in the quarter at cash cost of $15.17 per AgEq, reporting a net loss of US$26.6m (AG.T)

  • Osisko Gold Royalties earned revenues of C$57.3 million in the quarter (OR.T)

  • A few AGMs of note next week: Catalyst, Genesis and Sandfire

High Grade It

  • Moody’s downgrades MinRes as big investors demand board overhaul (AFR)

  • Regis has sued the federal government over its order that derailed potential development at McPhillamys (AFR)

  • Why US election result should be good for WA business (West)

  • Kinross Gold reported net earnings of +US$350m for the quarter, almost 4x higher than a year ago (MiningNews)

  • Aldebaran soars to new high as it teams up with Rio Tinto’s sulphide leaching technology venture on Altar project (Mining.com)

  • Madeleine King urged Trump to keep Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act as Australia looks to turbocharge its critical minerals industry (Australian)

  • Ahead of Rio Tinto buyout, Arcadium’s profit dips on sliding lithium prices (Reuters)

  • ASIC has launched a formal investigation into tax evasion allegations relating to MinRes founder Chris Ellison (West)

  • The US consul general reassured a WA crowd that the presidential election would unlikely change the two countries discussion on clean energy and EVs (BN)

  • Donald Trump’s return to the White House wiped billions of dollars from Australian-listed gold stocks, with many names down over 5% (West)

  • Chinese raw materials imports mostly rose year-on-year in October, according to customs data released Thursday (Bloomberg)

  • Titanium play IperionX has attracted fundies Pengana, Terra & Regal (AFR)

  • Lynas cut the ribbon at its Kal plant, with Madeleine King dubbing it “a huge deal for WA, and a massive step for Australia” (West)

  • MP Materials posts smaller-than-expected loss on higher output, sales (Reuters)

  • Alcoa declares force majure and suspends bauxite shipments from Brazil’s Juruti mine due to port issue (Reuters) a stranded vessel in the waterway?

  • Energy stocks advance as traders weigh Trump oil sanctions (CB)

  • Australia’s top tax official said no one would voluntarily confess under rules used by Chris Ellison if suspected tax crimes were routinely referred to the cops (West)

  • Woodside has a head start with LNG even if Trump delivers ramp-up in US developments, according to its CEO (Australian)

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Mako is up to a 24.6% stake in Aurum as part of its takeover offer (MKG)

  • It’s a golden chance for miners to buy rivals amid commodity sell-off (Australian) The ‘obvious’ play is for RMS to target SPR, while NST are said to be in a strong position, with DEG a potential target

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • Polymetals signed a US$20m prepayment facility, including the issuance of 2.5m options at $1 strike, declaring ‘funding complete’ (POL)

  • NexGold and Signal Gold have completed an upsized financing of C$18.5m concurrent with their merger (NEXG.V)

Word on the Decline

  • You’ve got to scratch your head at what the hold-up must be for the government of Ghana to progress the approval of Gold Fields’ and AngloGold’s proposed JV

  • The companies agreed all the way back in March 2023 to merge their neighbouring Tarkwa and Iduapriem mines to try create Africa’s largest gold mine. Gold Fields would hold a 60% stake, AngloGold Ashanti 30%, and the Ghanaian government 10%

  • All attempts to get permits before the national elections in December look tough

  • Meanwhile, Zijin acquired Newmont’s Akyem gold mine in Ghana last month. You reckon the Chinese would ever be left waiting +18 months for a permit in Ghana? We don’t think so… 🤷

Do you have some Word on the Decline? Reply to this email or shoot a message to [email protected] directly. We will always take your privacy seriously.

In the Weeds

  • Gina Rinehart linked to luxury Palm Beach property market (AFR)

  • What Trump’s victory means for mining (MiningNews)

  • Bonfire of the rent-seekers at the Clean Energy Council (AFR’s Rear Window)

  • Big Tech is Going Nuclear (Spotify, Apple podcasts)

  • Langer confronts some ‘elite honesty’ as MinRes director (AFR’s Rear Window)

  • Twin Metals copper-nickel mine in the Boundary Waters’ watershed stands to gain the most from the Trump win (Star Tribune)

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Today’s Top Tweet

Devil’s in the Detail

Petition to abandon AISC as the dominant gold industry metric anyone?

Plus, check the AGM results from the Spartan Resources meeting this year…

It looks to us like Spartan’s directors now have every reason to be nice to Ramelius, who looks to have abstained from voting on the approval of performance rights in several votes which passed with ~53% approval…

Catch up on our latest episode

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The Trump trade you didn’t know about (32 min)

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