U-Stocks Lead the Charge on UEC Deal

Adriatic lifts on operational update while rate cuts spur on debt dealings

The Pre-Start

  • Adriatic shared an operational update with its first $18m debt repayment due on Dec 31. It’s progressing plans for a new TSF following the court decision while the first stope brought in increased ore tonnes & development hit a record (ADT) CY24 guidance revised lower to 180,000 ore tonnes, no grade guidance provided

    • L1 Capital’s stake in Adriatic is now 12.7% as it takes the opposite view to short sellers (~7% short interest in the ASX CDI) (ADT)

  • First Quantum has suspended operations at Kansanshi following a fatal accident (FM.TO)

  • SSR Mining announced it’ll restart Seabee in the 2nd half of October following a fire and evacuation in August (SSR)

  • Spartan shared further assays from Pepper (in-fill & extensional) and other exploration targets at Dalgaranga (SPR)

  • Viridis has produced its maiden MREC product from Colossus, recovering 77% Pr & 76% Nd from ore to final product (VMM)

  • Agrimin shared a process engineering update for Mackay Potash as it looks to refine the conversion & flotation stages (AMN)

  • Great Boulder has picked up tenements along strike of Mulga Bill (GBR)

High Grade It

  • A coalition of 14 governments announces financing network for projects to provide raw materials to break China’s grip (FT)

  • Peter Dutton conceded the Coalition’s nuclear energy plan relies on ageing coal-fired power stations running for at least another 12 years (AFR)

  • The opposition’s nuclear plan will have a ‘significant’ upfront cost but details are yet to be released, as they attempt to convince voters (Australian)

  • Rio Tinto chairman Dominic Barton believes there won’t be enough copper to plug the looming supply gap, with M&A no helping the cause (West)

  • BHP averted a potentially hairy AGM by vowing to disclose its green steel capex & produce a 5-year financial plan on its emissions reduction strategy (AFR)

  • Uranium stocks soar after Constellation agreed its Microsoft deal (CB)

  • European steelmakers plead with Brussels to tackle flood of Chinese exports (FT)

  • Strike Energy shares sink on downward revision of gas reserve (CB)

  • China must ramp up housing rescue to boost growth, economists warn (AFR)

  • Northvolt to cut 20% of jobs in battle for survival (FT)

  • Aussie companies are accused of ‘hoarding’ cash rather than investing or returning it, as boards worry of economic slowdowns (AFR)

  • US companies raise billions in debt markets after the Feds rate cut (Bloomberg)

https://www.mmts.net.au/

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • UEC will expand its US production capacity by acquiring Rio Tinto’s Sweetwater Plant and Wyoming uranium assets for US$175m (UEC. NY)

  • Highfield has entered into a binding agreement with Yankuang Energy & other investors to raise US$220m in equity at a premium, while Yankuang will vend in the Southey Potash project, for which Highfield will pay US$286m. Additionally, the company stated Muga Phase 1 will be fully funded (HFR)

  • American Rare Eerths received a Letter of Interest (non-binding) from the EX-IM Bank of the US for construction of the Cowboy State mine (ARR)

  • Anson Resources received a US$330m Letter of Interest (non-binding) from the EX-IM Bank of the US for construction of a lithium plant in Utah (ASN)

  • Sierra Rutile shared a notice of compulsory acquisition as Leonoil warps up its takeover (SRX)

  • La Fleur Minerals has a binding agreement to acquire the Beacon gold mill and property in Abitibi out of receivership with full terms yet to be disclosed (LFLR.C)

  • BHP has provided Botswana-focused copper explorer, Cobre with a letter of intent to exclusively negotiate an earn-in and joint venture agreement (CBE)

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • BHP will exercise its option to redeem & cancel €750m of subordinated fixed rate notes it issued in 2015, that were paying 5.625% & due in 2079 (BHP)

  • Coronado commenced a US$400m senior secured notes offering in order to redeem its outstanding notes due in 2026 as well as general purposes (CRN)

  • Ivanhoe Electric’s VRB Energy subsidiary secured a US$55m investment, with US$20m to go toward a vanadium battery manufacturing facility while it tweaks the ownership of its Chinese facility (IE.NY)

  • Firefly Metals is in a trading halt to raise capital (FFM)

Word on the Decline

  • With Mt Cattlin up for grabs, it’s interesting to think about which party is capable of a winning bid for the project:

    • MinRes? Responsible for more than their fair share of WA lithium M&A but they need to deleverage their balance sheet not stretch it further. But we imagine it will be hard for them to watch it land in someone else’s hands given their land grab to date

    • IGO? Has to bid within the TLEA JV and a FIRB delay cycle would likely unpalatable

    • SQM / Hancock? Will the short mine life at Mt Cattlin be too much of a deterrence? Just focus on the long game with Andover

    • Liontown? Wesfarmers? Pilbara? Similar thinking to above

    • Develop? Restarting Woodlawn now

    • Any of the other WA lithium developers? Good luck raising the cash consideration Arcadium will want

  • Who knows, a commodity trader may even pop up here as they build out their lithium trading book depth…

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In the Weeds

  • Dryblower wonders whether attack of the 'shorters' could break MinRes

  • Daniel Yergin Oil Explains the Entire 20th Century (Dwarkesh Podcast)

  • Gina Rinehart upgrades her airport (and email signature) (AFR’s Rear Window)

  • China needs boldness from its economic policymakers (Huw McKay)

  • South Africa’s Coalition Government Triggers Wave of Investment (Bloomberg)

  • World’s biggest banks pledge support for nuclear power (FT)

  • Why it’s dangerous to be super rich in China (AFR op-ed)

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