Twiggy Swings the Axe at FMG

Evolution misses guidance while Paladin eyes index flows

The Pre-Start

  • Evolution generated$367m in group cashflow (pre-financing activity) for FY24, producing 717koz Au & 68kt Cu (EVN) It’s what’s not included that matters, with the words “met guidance” conspicuously absent

  • Genesis produced 35koz gold in the June qtr, generating ~$24m free cash before growth capital of $32 million (GMD)

    This waterfall gets the Money of Mine pass mark

  • The ASX queried Leo Lithium on its continuing suspension following the sale of its Goulamina interest, with no suspension end indicated (LLL)

  • NRW expects revenue to be $2.9b, in line with guidance, with EBITA expected to come in at $195m (NWH)

  • Turaco shared 23 drill results from Woulo Woulo, with the pick of the bunch a 61m at 1.64g/t from 124m intercept (TCG)

  • Magnetite Mines signed a non-binding MoU with ZEN Energy to work towards energy offtake agreements and JV arrangements (MGT)

  • Santos sold 23.2 mmboe in the June quarter and generated ~US$380m free cash flow from its oil and gas operations (STO)

  • Carnarvon provided an update on Dorado, indicating overall capex prior to first oil will be below previous guidance of US$2b (CVN)

  • Bathurst Resources announced a tunnel failure on the rail line between the BT Mining JV Stockton mine & Lyttleton Port (BRL)

High Grade It

  • Two Chinese copper smelters have laid out plans to reduce production next year as a market imbalance compresses TCRCs (Bloomberg)

  • Fortescue will cut 700 people from its global sites by the end of the month in a bid to “simplify” its operations (BN)

  • Andrew Forrest launched a sweeping restructure at FMG in the face of its failure to deliver on its hydrogen ambitions (The Australian)

  • Copper steadied after rising earlier on signs of US rate cuts and a report some Chinese smelters would reduce output (Bloomberg)

  • Oil eased, with global benchmark Brent hovering near a one-month low on signs of weakening demand in China (Reuters)

  • At least five people were killed & several were injured when an informal gold mine caved in and buried them alive in northern Kenya (Reuters)

  • Rio Tinto has appointed former Shell exec Katie Jackson to head its copper business (CB)

  • Gold notched up an all-time high on Wednesday, as growing optimism for an interest-rate cut from the Fed boosted demand (Reuters)

  • Paladin’s deal for Fission will see it become the 3rd largest publicly traded uranium player, as CEO Ian Purdy talks up deal (Bloomberg)

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • The WA Supreme Court approved the convening of PNX shareholders to vote on the proposed KIN deal (PNX)

  • Alumina major shareholder CITIC, owner of 18.92% of AWC, has pledged its support of the Alcoa takeover (AWC)

  • FIRB approval has been received for the Westgold and Karora merger (WGX)

  • Noronex announced a farm-in with S32, where the major will spend $3mpa for 5 years on its Namibia copper project, resulting in 60% ownership (NRX) The stock’s up 40% on the news

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • G2 Goldfields has raised $42 million via private placement cornerstoned by a European investor and AngloGold Ashanti (GTWO)

  • Arizona Lithium has been conditionally approved for an investment incentive, where it can claim credits against government royalties (AZL)

  • Kingsgate confirmed it had satisfied the conditions and received the US$35m from Nebari (KCN)

  • Tesoro Gold received binding commitments for $10m for it El Zorro gold project (TSO)

  • Silver Mines has secured a $30m convertible with Bromma AM for its Bowdens silver project (SVL)

Word on the Decline

  • We don’t think this is groundbreaking news to anyone but assume Santos is for sale

  • Our word is that Kevin Gallagher, while still technically CEO, is much less visible in the business in recent times…

Do you have some Word on the Decline? Reply to this email or shoot a message to [email protected] directly. We will always take your privacy seriously.

In the Weeds

  • The chair of the AER has said Australia’s debate over nuclearpower is coming “a decade or two late” (AFR)

  • Wall Street has posted its best quarter for investment banking in more than two years (FT)

  • Inflation is proving more persistent than expected, potentially forcing central banks to keep rates higher for longer, the IMF warned (AFR)

  • Reality bites for Forrest’s hydrogen dream but Fortescue investors won’t mind writes Chanticleer (AFR)

  • Jeff Currie on whether the much-anticipated commodity super cycle is just a mirage (Spotify, Apple)

  • Another podcast we highly recommend: The Folly of Certainty by Howard Marks (Spotify, Apple) Always be suspicious of overly certain opinions, especially ours!

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Today’s Top Tweet

Devil’s in the Detail

We’ve got two for you today, aren’t you lucky?

#1 This is a pretty unfortunate typo in Fortescue’s announcement yesterday, don’t you think? Is it inaccurate? Weellll…

#2 Lots of mining companies are busy selling their stories at Noosa this week. Reckon any elbows will be out at 12:15 during the Noosa Blues session as the two Murchison MDs cross paths on stage?

Catch up on our latest episode

Koala and Tom Woolrych on the State of Capital Flows in the Mining Industry

🔗Spotify | Apple (Audio-only episode)

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Disclaimer

All information in this newsletter is for education and entertainment purposes only and is of general nature only. The hosts of Money of Mine are not financial professionals. Money of Mine are not aware of your personal financial circumstances. Before making any investment decision, you should consult a licensed financial, legal or tax professional, along with considering any relevant Product Disclosure Statement. Money of Mine does not operate under an Australian financial services licence and relies on the exemption available under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) in respect of any information or advice given. Money of Mine strives to ensure the accuracy and currency of the information contained in this newsletter but we do not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, reliable or up to date. Any views expressed by the hosts of Money of Mine are their opinion only and may contain forward looking statements that may not eventuate. Money of Mine will not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of information in this newsletter.

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