Today's gold M&A deal will at least have board headcount synergies...

Plus SRX points to $401 million NPV in The Fumble in the Jungle

G’day GC #

The Pre-Start

  • Kin Mining and PNX Metals are set to merge, both companies are in trading halts pending the release of transaction details to the market (KIN) - If it looks like a strange combination, check out the Board common denominators…

  • Sierra Rutile has played another card amidst its takeover defence battle, releasing the Sembehun project DFS. Capex dropped by $36m to $301m from the 2022 PFS, while the NPV8 rose to $401m. The stock closed Thursday at 12c, above PRM Services 9.5c bid (SRX)

  • Macmahon has executed an agreement to sell a portion of its remaining mobile fleet equipment from the Dawson South mine for $44m (MAH)

  • Tiger’s Realm has entered voluntary suspension while it grapples with Russian sanction regulation compliance (TIG)

  • Lunnon Metals extensional drilling returns 9m @ 5.29% Ni up-dip from the existing Baker ore reserve boundary and close to surface (LM8)

High Grade It

  • Chalice Mining has spent $45m buying up farmland around the Julimar State Forest to support future development ambitions (The West)

  • Growth in world coal capacity has jeopardised emissions forecasts as China continues to bring plants online while the pace of closure in the US & EU slows (FT)

Global coal power capacity

Global coal power capacity

  • Gold’s surge helped overshadow rising production costs at Northern Star, who pre-reported quarterly figures on Thursday (The West)

  • Industrial metals, including zinc, copper & nickel have jumped as investors bet on rising Chinese demand & tight supply (FT)

  • Chinese investors led strong buying in copper & gold stocks, with the materials sector the strongest CSI 300 performer last month (Bloomberg)

  • A restructuring at Sibanye-Stillwater’s South African gold operations could lead to 4,000 job losses (Reuters)

  • The recent rise in petrol prices has caused Biden fresh headaches with less than 6 months until the US presidential election (FT)

  • Allianz, a major Woodside investor, plans to vote against the re-election of Richard Goyder as Chair, over climate concerns (The Australian)

  • The Congo, which produces 75% of world’s cobalt supply, is studying potential export quotas in an attempt to arrest the price slump (Mining.com)

  • Over 98,000 people have been evacuated from floods in Kazakhstan, leading to speculation over the security of uranium production (Reuters)

  • The oil price slipped on Thursday as persistent inflation dampened rate-cut expectations, but prices stayed near 6-month highs with geopolitical concerns still rife (Reuters)

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Unlisted Jag Minerals, which holds uranium projects in the US, is being acquired for $10m by US-based Tonogold Resources (The Australian)

  • Street Talk has reported that Genex Power shareholders are expected to be told that the company has agreed to binding terms with suitors J-Power (AFR)

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • Aspiring copper developer, New World Resources is raising $10m at $0.036 a share, an 18% discount to the last close (NWC)

Word on the Decline

  • With Sierra Rutile releasing their updated DFS on Sembehun, isn’t it a bit peculiar that the $401 million NPV assumes Sembehun would get the same tax concessions as Area 1?

That fiscal regime applies only to Area 1. We think the Board’s intention here is to demonstrate not what Sembehun is worth to Sierra Rutile, who would undoubtedly face a more onerous tax regime mining the project, but rather what it could be worth to the hostile bidder. Recall that PRM is apparently quite cozy with Sierra Leonne’s government, according to The West. PRM, it’s your turn.

In the Weeds

  • The role that metal recycling will play as demand grows & supply struggles to keep up is up for debate. This video by the FT gives a quick look at work recycling could look like for various metals

Today’s Top Tweet

Devil’s in the Detail

A useful heuristic to keep in mind - every time you read a company brag about the growth of their market capitalisation instead of their total shareholder return (TSR), it is likely because the latter has been underwhelming.

This is not just a small-cap trick… We pulled this sentence directly from $25 billion Santos’ AGM Address yesterday.

STO brags MCap has grown 5x from 2016

So of course we cross-checked this with Santos’ TSR which unsurprisingly did not increase fivefold. If you purchased Santos 10 years ago, collected and reinvested all dividends, you’d still be down 26%.

STO TSR over last 12 years

It shouldn’t be surprising why they chose Jan 2016 as the starting point either…

Disclaimer

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