Sayona + Piedmont to Tie the Knot

Orla buy Musselwhite from Newmont for up to US$850m, BHP says we're not ready for low cost competitors

The Pre-Start

  • SRG Global secured $700m of contracts across Aus & NZ with clients including Glencore, South32, & HanRoy (SRG)

  • Santos’ reveals a new capital allocation framework: the company will return >60% of free cash flow to shareholders from 2026 and when gearing is below 15-25%, 100% of FCF will be returned via dividends and/or buybacks (STO)

  • Spartan shared new met results from Never Never, focusing on the shallower material (<430m from surface), reporting 91.6% recovery after adjusting for expected plant conditions, targeting a 75μm grind size (SPR)

  • Nico’s Wingellina nickel project has been awarded Major Project Status by the Australian Government (NC1)

  • Ramelius’ COO Duncan Coutts has stepped down, with Peter Ganza acting COO (RMS)

  • Latin Resources has drawn down $5m of the $10m loan that Pilbara provided in connection with the Scheme (LRS)

  • VanEck has sold down its Resolute holding to 9.36% (RSG) Macquarie lifted its discount rate from 10% to 17.5% reflecting the change of in-country risk in Mali

  • Regal has etched its Pantoro holding higher to 13.25% (PNR)

  • From the drillbit: Sun Silver hit 50m @ 44g/t Ag and 0.31g/t Au from 248m (SS1). Stellar Resources hit 20.9m @ 1.97% Sn from 431m at Heemskirk (SRZ)

High Grade It

  • BHP’s Australia chief said the nation can’t rely on its traditional mining export markets and is unprepared for a new era of lower-cost competitors (Bloomberg)

  • Rio may be forced to build a second, $400m desalination plant after traditional owners demanded the gov’t halve the amount of groundwater extracted (AFR)

  • Big super demands MinRes board come clean on founder’s private deals (AFR)

  • Rosatom, the world's largest supplier of enriched uranium, said it was delivering uranium to all of its customers as usual and that supplies to the US could take place under a special regime (Reuters)

  • Resolute will pay Mali’s military-led gov’t $US160m to settle a ‘tax dispute’ that resulted in the arrest of 3 employees (AFR, Australian)

  • The billions of dollars generated by QLD’s hefty coal royalty rates are a short-term “sugar hit” that isn’t in the state’s long-term best interests, BHP said (West)

  • Wyloo delivered a reprieve to Hastings, withdrawing a debt default that threatened to push the struggling rare earths developer into insolvency (AFR)

  • Heightened mining taxes will stay but QLD premier Crisafulli promises ‘fairer’ system (Australian)

  • China’s cancellation of tax relief on exports has left the aluminium industry scrambling to assess the impact on supply flows (Bloomberg)

  • Goldman Sachs is urging investors to choose copper & aluminium over iron ore in 2025 as weak demand from China collides with an excess supply of (AFR)

  • Gold will rally to a record next year on central-bank buying and US interest rate cuts, according to Goldman Sachs (Bloomberg)

  • Macmahon was awarded $90m, two-year contract extension at Daisy Milano gold mine (West)

  • Nickel miner Prony Resources New Caledonia has brought its staff back as it prepares to restart after a 6-month suspension triggered by riots (Bloomberg)

  • Scandal-plagued Mineral Resources has created a specialist legal counsel role ahead of AGM (West)

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Orla Mining is acquiring the Musselwhite mine in Canada from Newmont for US$810m upfront cash consideration plus US$40m contingent. Financed with a gold prepayment, debt facility and convertible notes (ORLA.T) the mine produces 202kozpa and has reserves of 1.5Moz gold

  • Sayona and Piedmont are set to merge, both stocks are in a trading halt and Street Talk is confirming there’s an equity raise associated with the deal too

Street Talk

It seems like journos always look at IRESS market cap not realising it’s CDI float only..? Piedmont's market cap is ~$350m

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • Sayona’s merger with Piedmont will be accompanied by a A$150m equity raise (AFR)

  • ERA completed the shortfall bookbuild, with no surprises that zero bids were received (ERA)

  • Cokal has entered a strategic partnership with commodity house, Cratus, who will invest US$13m into a 50:50 infrastructure JV and provide US$7m directly to Cokal (CKA) Cratus will get marketing rights for 10yrs

  • Danakali intends to list on the NSX to provide its shareholders liquidity and bypass the ASX’s “assets test” (DNK) the company has $31 million cash

Word on the Decline

  • We think RCF is taking 10% of the combined Sayona / Piedmont pro forma… Are they trying to replicate their Pilbara / Altura returns?

Do you have some Word on the Decline? Reply to this email or shoot a message to [email protected] directly. We will always take your privacy seriously.

In the Weeds

  • MinRes board fails the pub test. Again (AFR’s Chanticleer)

  • Offshore oil is back. At what cost? (FT’s Big Read)

  • Why even Toyota is falling behind in the EV race (AFR)

  • The world according to Coppo and why he thinks MinRes is a ‘screamer’ (AFR Monday Fundie)

  • PauloMacro’s deep dive into the striking parallels of the current US equity market to the 1970s Nifty Fifty (Substack)

  • Can I get an encore, do you want more (coal gen)? (Coal Trader)

  • Bell Potter’s track record of trades with MinRes (AFR’s Rear Window)

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Today’s Top Tweet

If you don’t get it, here’s the necessary context

Devil’s in the Detail

Ahhh gotta love these slides. This one from Orla Mining’s acquisition deck:

Every deal is accretive on a per-share basis when you debt-fund the acquisition! But that doesn’t mean every deal is a good deal.

In Orla’s favour on that front, buying assets from the majors has usually been a sound strategy for doing good deals. The stock closed up 8% so it probably thought so too.

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Correction

In relation to our Word on the Decline regarding MinRes’ involvement with Goulamina, a Ganfeng spokesperson confirms that Ganfeng does not work with MinRes on any projects outside of Australia.

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