Rio Reckon Resolution is in Sight Under Trump Presidency

NGEx hit copper-stonker at Lunahuasi while Lotus locks in on uranium production

The Pre-Start

  • Fortescue shipped 49.4Mt at a Hematite C1 cost of US$18.24/wmt 10% better than last quarter, with guidance unchanged. Iron Bridge shipments were 1.5Mt following a major shutdown. Net debt totalled US$2b (FMG)

  • Regis’ full quarterly showed 101koz @ an AISC of $2,317/oz leading to $215m in operating cash flow. Cash & bullion closed the year at $529m (up by $149m), with the $300m loan being repaid post year-end (RRL)

  • Westgold’s quarterly showed 81koz @ an AISC of $2,703/oz, with the Murchison’s contribution weaker than expected at 46koz @ a $2,556/oz AISC. Previously flagged cash of $152m involved a $50m debt draw down (WGX)

  • Greatland Gold delivered their first month of production at Telfer after taking the keys off Newmont in Dec ‘24, producing ~34koz AuEq and dual train processing ops resuming (GGP.AIM)

  • Gold Road’s annual R&R statement showed an increase in Mineral Resources of 300koz to 4.81Moz while reserves grew 5% to 43Mt @ 1.39g/t for 1.92Moz (GOR)

  • Coronado delivered first coal from Mammoth underground (Curragh) in December while delivering saleable production of 4Mt. Net debt closed at US$85m, from US$94m. Mining costs improved by 17% on the Sept quarter (CRN)

  • AIC Mines shared Jericho resource extension drilling, with follow-up holes from Matilda North results including 13m (9.75m ETW) @ 6.35% Cu & 1g/t Au from 271m (A1M)

  • Cyprium entered into an agreement with Macmahon for Nifty’s development, with the contractor to support the BFS and a life-of-mine deal envisaged (CYM)

  • Lotus declared Kayelekera’s restart is on track for first production by Q3 2025, while it added Leanne Heywood and Simon Hay as NEDs (LOT)

  • Mount Gibson sold 0.7Mwmt of 65.2% iron ore, resulting in $16m in group cash flow ($15m from Koolan ops). Cash & investments are $431m + a $20 FNX stake (MGX)

  • NGEx drilled 51m @ 13.84% CuEq within 205m @ 5.08% CuEq at Lunahuasi (NGEX.TSX)

  • Element 29 shared drill results from Elida Phase-III drilling, including a 1039m @ 0.54% CuEq result (ECU.TSX)

  • Turaco shared what it deemed a new discovery at Baffia, returning 32m @ 1.7g/t Au from 200m - 600m spaced RC drilling (TCG)

  • Monadelphous shared that it has secured a construction contract worth $150m with Rio Tinto at its Brockman 4 mine. Work to be completed 1H CY26 (MND)

  • Chalice closed the quarter with $90m in cash, while targeting Gonneville FID in 2027 (CHN)

  • Cygnus reported assay results from drilling at its Chibougamau copper-gold project, including 7.3m at 4.2% Cu from ~318m (CY5)

High Grade It

  • Woodside paused US hydrogen and solar projects as it responds to Trump’s energy shift, while in the final stages of shopping around for partners in its yet-to-be-built LNG project just on onshore of Louisiana’s Gulf Country (Australian)

  • Regulations & royalties are the key focus for Coal Australia’s boss, with the case for streamlining approvals high on the agenda (MNN)

  • Rio Tinto has offered the Mongolian government US$295m to settle a long-running tax dispute over the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine (AFR)

  • Greens WA pledged a WA bauxite ban if given a balance of power by local voters (BN)

  • The ASX’s two most shorted stocks, Paladin & Boss, clocked up double-digit gains on Wednesday as a new wave of uranium optimism grows (West)

  • Rio Tinto is betting Trump will finally give the green light to its giant Resolution copper mine in Arizona after a 12-year permitting battle (FT)

  • Trump announces US$500b in private sector investment to build AI infrastructure in the US (CBS)

  • BHP’s internal investigation into allegations of corruption involving its QLD coal operations has led to the sacking of dozens of contractors (Australian)

  • Alcoa expects higher annual shipments of the metal in 2025 due to rising demand, guiding to ship 2.7Mt (Bloomberg)

  • “No royalty relief”: MinRes’ sale of Yilgarn iron ore assets dealt a major below as the government rules out replicating sweetheart deal MINs received (West)

  • Trump on Tuesday vowed to hit the EU with tariffs and said his administration was discussing a 10% punitive duty on Chinese imports (Reuters)

  • Trump prioritises domestic mining & processing in executive orders (Oregon Group)

  • BHP said its in-house labour-hire firms are exempt from Labor’s same job, same pay laws as they’re contracted for supervision & management services (AFR)

  • TotalEnergies further delayed its troubled US$20b LNG project in Mozambique as security concerns & political uncertainty dog one of Africa’s biggest energy investments (FT)

  • The mammoth $490m compensation payout to GreenX Metals from Poland could be delayed, with the nation applying for a set-aside motion (BN)

  • AFIC sticks to focus as investors obsess about how to get ahead of Trump policies (West)

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Capricorn Metals has acquired the Deadman Flat project from Peregrine Gold for $1.5m in CMM scrip upfront and a 1% NSR (CMM) paying a small deal in scrip…? Something tells us management thinks the paper is a bit full…

  • Pilbara Minerals’ acquisition of Latin has become effective (LRS)

  • Orla Mining shareholders approved the company’s US$850m deal to purchase the Musselwhite mine from Newmont (OLA.TSX)

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • Geopacific closed its $40m entitlement offer, with Deutsche Balaton and its associates (including ASX listed Patronus Resources) to emerge with a collective 61.8% stake (GPR)

  • Vulcan Energy announced the closing of its SPP, which added $8m to the $164m placement (VUL)

Word on the Decline

  • Perhaps we jumped the gun celebrating the East Wall remediation at Northern Star’s super pit

  • We hear that 70mm of rain in 24hrs back in December resulted in a slip at the pit, covering the ramp to access the north and restricting access to just Oroya Brownhill ore sources. To the best of our knowledge, this still isn’t fixed and can be seen from the public look-out

  • Adding salt to the wounds, we think the 3.5 magnitude earthquake in Kalgoorlie in early December had an impact at Mount Charlotte UG mine. Word on the decline is the decline got caved in. UG has only just been re-entered but for five weeks, no tonnes were achieved

Do you have some Word on the Decline? Reply to this email or shoot a message to [email protected] directly. We will always take your privacy seriously.

In the Weeds

  • Navigating Trump 2.0: Geopolitics, trade and the energy transition (MNN)

  • Has China already reached peak oil? (AFR)

  • Trump’s first 100 days: five policies shaping markets in 2025 (Livewire)

  • Why Mexico’s government is making an EV (FT)

  • Drill, baby, drill: 6 stocks to play oil, uranium and other key commodities with Tribeca’s Todd Warren (Livewire)

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Today’s Top Tweet

Devil’s in the Detail

In an era where capital cost blowouts and schedule delays are the norm, this from Evolution is genuinely impressive…

EVN Dec ‘24 Quarterly Report

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