Rio Confirms the Arcadium Rumours are True

West African down 25% on Burkina nationalisation fears, Arcadium up 46% on takeover talk

The Pre-Start

  • Rio Tinto has confirmed that it has submitted a non-binding bid for Arcadium Lithium (RIO) more comments below, Arcadium opens 46% up!

  • West African Resources entered a pause in trading, after it traded down >25% following Burkina nationalisation comments (WAF)

  • WA1 shared a second round of metallurgical testwork, delivering a refined concentrate of 66.9% Nb2O5 at 99.9% recovery (WA1)

  • Pantoro entered an options trade to lock in the high gold price, accounting for 24% of its 2025 forecast production, also hedging 800kL of diesel (PNR)

  • Santana’s Bendigo-Ophir project has been designated as a ‘fast-track project’ under the government’s approvals bill, to be enacted by year-end (SMI)

  • Like Santana, Manuka’s Taranaki VTM project made the NZ government fast track list (MKR)

  • Austral released a scoping study on its undeveloped Queensland copper assets (AR1)

High Grade It

  • BHP redeployed 700 nickel workers following the Nickel West suspension (West)

  • No Rio Tinto shareholder should be surprised if a big lithium acquisition emerges this week, given Rio’s chief indications (AFR)

  • Burkina Faso plans to withdraw mining permits from some foreign companies & will seek to produce more of its own gold, junta leader Ibrahim Traore said (Reuters)

  • Former Fortescue employees have failed to convince a court to throw out evidence gathered through a property search, boosting FMG’s case (AFR)

  • Kamala Harris has stressed America’s need for a national reserve of critical minerals (Yahoo Finance)

  • Copper smelters are warning that plants may shut down or even go out of business if the industry’s processing fees drop too sharply (Bloomberg)

  • Australia’s mergers arbitrator reopened an investigation into Rio’s use of a deeply discounted rights issue to potentially take out ERA (AFR)

  • Oil ‘tourists’ pile into market amid biggest rally in two years (Bloomberg)

  • France's TotalEnergies is considering a move into trading copper, expanding its oil trading operations into metals to capitalise on the energy transition (Reuters)

  • Indonesian steelmaker PT Krakatau Steel’s attempt to restructure $1.5bn of loans is turning the spotlight on operational and industry woes (Bloomberg)

  • Kazakhstan votes in a referendum on Sunday on whether to build its first nuclear power plant (Reuters)

  • Origin’s Chinese partner, & the major customer of its Australia Pacific LNG JV, is seeking a price cut under its long-term supply contract (Australian)

  • Indonesia’s coal producers diversify to nickel & aluminium, as money for mining dries up while international pressure builds (FT)

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Rio has confirmed a takeover approach to Arcadium in a deal rumoured to be valued between US$4-6 billion (Reuters)

  • Blackwattle Investment Partners penned a letter to the board of Arcadium insisting on value maximisation in the context of Rio Tinto’s “opportunistic” bid (Full letter)

If the management do believe that the growth opportunity highlighted by the recent Investor Day is achievable, in our opinion, a sale price for LTM should be closer to $8 billion, and LTM should be willing to walk away from an opportunistic offer

Arcadium shareholder, Blackwattle Investment Partners
  • Coeur will acquire SilverCrest via a plan of arrangement, paying an 18% premium to the 20-day VWAP, implying an equity value of US$1.7b, with Coeur shares dropping 8.5% following announcement (CDE.NY)

  • The Takeovers Panel has decided to conduct proceedings in relation to an application by Zentree and Packer & Co regarding ERA’s entitlements offer (ERA)

  • Arizona Lithium has sold 40,000 acres of mineral titles for $11m (AZL)

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • Bowen Coking Coal has launched a $70m entitlement offer which is underwritten to the tune of $40m (but only if $60m minimum is raised) (BCB)

    BCI Minerals achieved financial close for its $981m Mardie project debt facility, first salt on ship targeted for Q2 FY27 (BCI)

  • Australian Pacific Coal completed its placement and insto component of its entitlement offer, raising an aggregated of $16.5m (AQC)

Word on the Decline

  • Is anyone else as amazed as we are that Rio Tinto is actually embarking on counter-cyclical M&A this time? Times really have changed…

  • Late Thursday last week the share price of Albemarle shot up too as Rio M&A rumours did the rounds narrowing the field to both Albemarle and Arcadium

  • Everything has its price but we tend to think that if Arcadium is attractive today then Albemarle should certainly be attractive to the global miner too (lower cost assets, etc). There was probably some truth to the rumours with Albemarle, despite them not making the headlines today

Do you have some Word on the Decline? Reply to this email or shoot a message to [email protected] directly. We will always take your privacy seriously.

In the Weeds

  • Low-carbon technologies need far less mining than fossil fuels (Our World in Data)

  • An interesting 20 minute documentary on the development of the extraordinarily remote Polaris zinc & lead mine, built in the high Arctic in Canada (YouTube)

  • If you want to seem like a genius in the office today talking about Rio’s bid for Arcadium, listen to the lithium producer’s Investor Day call a few weeks ago (Quatr)

  • Buy Hold Sell: Copper’s time has finally come (Livewire) Hosted by Money of Mine’s Matty Michael

  • Northvolt’s Funding Travails Hit Battery Projects from Germany to Canada (Bloomberg)

  • China’s Drive for Global EV Dominance and the Roadblocks It’s Facing (WSJ)

  • EV industry’s shift from regulation to consumer demand (Livewire)

  • Bloomberg says $2.1T is needed for energy transition metal sectors to 2050, mining industry must invest in exploration today (MiningNews)

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