Pilbara Miners Avoid Catastrophe as Zelia Weakens

Rumours swirl around Glencore DRC asset sale while Rio's in hot water over OT diisclosure

February 17, 2025

The Pre-Start

  • Agnico Eagle produced 847koz at US$1,316/oz AISC while outlining stable production guidance of 3.4Moz for the next 3 years, with 2025 costs to come in at US$1,275/oz. Net debt now sits at US$217m (AEM.NY) Stock was down 5%

  • New Hope reported saleable coal production of 2.7Mt for the quarter, with underlying EBITDA of $213m. Bengalla achieved FOB costs of $68/t for the half (NHC)

  • Pantoro shared drilling results from the Butterfly area its Southern Mainfield system, with numerous narrow, high-grade hits from the 5km driilled to date (PNR)

  • Lotus issued a statement to clarify the Malawian government’s position on mineral exports, stating there is no temporary ban on exports (LOT)

  • Chalice claimed a metallurgical breakthrough at Gonneville, producing saleable copper & nickel concentrates from low-grade composites, grading 22-26% Cu (in a Cu-PGE-Au con) & 7.5-8.7% Ni (in a Ni-Co-PGE con) (CHN)

  • Golden Horse reported assay results from its maiden drill program at Hakes Find including 11m at 3.4g/t Au from 8m (GHM)

  • Rox shared a host of drill results from its 35km drill program at Youanmi, with a mineral resource estimate targeted for mid-CY25 (RXL)

  • Burgundy announced a diesel fuel offtake agreement with Macquarie for 2025 to minimise working capital challenges due to weather-related trucking challenges (BDM)

  • Larvotto announced a significant project change, opting for dry tailings storage as it awaits government permitting (LRV)

  • Capital DI has emerged as a ~6.1% holder of Apollo Minerals after participating in the recent capital raise (AON)

  • Black Cat is giving shareholders the privilege of purchasing secialised “Cat Coins” from gold mined at Paulsens (BC8) Don’t mind it, but guess the last time we saw this

High Grade It

  • WA’s Port Hedland, the world's largest iron ore hub, reopened after Cyclone Zelia hit the Pilbara region, the port's operator said late on Saturday (Reuters)

  • The AFR has revealed Rio Tinto told investors its huge Oyu Tolgoi project was running on time & on budget the same week it had crisis meetings regarding a 9-month delay

  • Iron ore and lithium heavyweights escape major damage from Cyclone Zelia, but Rio will be playing catch up for the year on iron ore tonnes (Australian)

  • Workers at the Renison tin mine in Tasmania have been evacuated in response to a bushfire alert, no damage or injuries reported (MNN)

  • Albemarle will shut a processing plant in China as it continues to cut costs, in a move that casts more doubt on the future of refineries built in WA (Australian)

  • 43 people, mostly women, were killed after an artisanal gold mine collapsed in western Mali on Saturday, the head of an industry union said (Reuters)

  • Money managers boosted their bullish wagers on copper to the highest since October due to concerns over potential tariffs (Bloomberg)

  • Agnico Eagle is threatening to snag the title of world’s 2nd largest gold producer from Barrick, with Mali issues challenging the current No. 2 (Bloomberg)

  • Vale said on Friday it expects to raise iron ore production in its main complex Carajas, in northern Brazil, by nearly 13% through 2030 as part of a US$12.3b investment plan (Reuters)

  • China’s coal plant construction surged last year to the highest level in almost a decade, conflicting with President Xi Jinping’s promise that carbon emissions would peak before 2030 (FT)

This edition you can find materials on a Mining Project Finance Masterclass, Stay tuned, there’s more to come on this space! Go Model Answer

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Glencore has held preliminary discussions about selling its multibillion-dollar copper & cobalt mines in the DRC, rejecting an unsolicited bid from a potential Middle Eastern buyer last month (FT) separately held talks about offloading Kazakh assets too

  • Coal mining investor AMCI is offloading an interest in its Fitzroy mining complex in a quest to attract an investment worth about $100m (Australian)

  • Rio’s US$6.7bn Arcadium takeover clears last regulatory hurdle (MNN)

  • Neometals announced the execution of a project agreement providing additional funding & services to Novana Oy (NMT 87.1% interest) who is commercialising NMT’s vanadium recovery process (NMT)

  • Baku Steel Co. and Jindal Steel International have raised their bids to a reported €1b for Acciaierie d'Italia (ADI), the Italian government said, making them the frontrunners in the bidding for the plant (Reuters)

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • Winsome has raised $7.8 million and extended the option they have to acquire Renard until 31 August 2025 (WR1)

  • QMines announced a $6m placement to accelerate Mt Chalmers (QML)

Word on the Decline

  • FT’s goss on Glencore is particularly interesting to us. There was very little love for the Swiss trading house and miner from our recent trip to Africa

  • We think there’s a view amongst some institutional investors that:

    • Met coal price pressure will continue, undermining GLEN’s deleveraging efforts

    • Management would prefer to ‘take-private’ the coal and trading business, offloading the rest

    • Recent rumours (Rio, DRC & Kazakh sale) are evidence of this…

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In the Weeds

  • The Koala on ‘The Best Opportunity in Precious Metal Producers No One Knows About’ (Substack) - Thrilla in Manila

  • Something curious is happening in WA mining (MNN)

  • Mongolia, China to Build New Cross-Border Railway (Coal Trader)

  • Why is Gold buggin’? FT Unhedged Podcast (Spotify, Apple)

  • Navigating the Fourth Turning: Power, Technology, & Moral Decline - Hidden Forces (Spotify, Apple)

  • PauloMacro and Koala Discuss the Economic Recovery in Argentina and Mining's Role in its Resurgence - Mining Stock Daily (Spotify, Apple)

  • Can Australian smelters survive Trump and the carbon transition? (AFR)

  • America has just tried to grab Ukraine’s vast mineral wealth (Economist)

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