Perseus Ups Predictive Stake + A US$1b Silver Merger

WA's mining sector takes another hit, Woodside secures long-term debt

The Pre-Start

  • Macmahon has been selected as the mining contractor at Poboya gold, commencing in Sept 26’ and worth US$54m (MAH)

  • EQ Resources announced it hit a monthly production record, with output of 9,040mtu (WO3 in concentrate) at Mt Carbine & similar at Saloro (EQR) Group production up 31% for the month

  • Phosphate producer Centrex expects sales for the September quarter to be ~66kt, down from previously guided 70-80kt (CXM) yesterday the major shareholder stepped down from the board following over 20 years of involvement

  • Rimfire Pacific has entered a trading halt pending material information relating to the Golden Plains court case (RIM) since when did this become a $186m market cap company?

  • Regal lifted its Red 5 stake to 6.2% (RED)

  • Metals X’s buyback is in full swing, as it purchased a further 1.4m shares, as is Karoon’s, who bought back 1.8m shares (MLX, KAR)

High Grade It

  • Xi Jinping pledged to step up China's support to Africa with funding of nearly US$51b (Reuters)

  • Goldman Sachs reckons “the copper rally is delayed” as the Chinese property sector weighs on sentiment (MiningNews)

  • Up to 300 WA jobs to be cut as Arcadium Lithium announces it will mothball Mt Cattlin mine near Ravensthorpe (West)

  • WA jobs at risk as Mt Cattlin mine to be paused by Arcadium (Australian)

  • Indonesia sees nickel prices stabilising near current levels, as new plants in the world’s biggest producer offset rising demand (Bloomberg)

  • Mineral Resources shares continue their collapse, as an Andrew Ellison-led WA garnet mine exacerbates cash crunch (West)

  • Coronado lowers coal forecast and slams Queensland royalty regime (Australian)

  • Chinese lithium processors are ratcheting up hedging to offset wild swings, a sign that local futures are gaining traction (Bloomberg)

  • South Africa's Harmony Gold increased its dividend on Thursday as its annual profit more than doubled (Reuters)

  • ERA shareholders are trying to delay the Rio Tinto-led capital raise (AFR)

  • The Australian economy posted its weakest growth since the early 1990s, excluding the pandemic period (WSJ)

  • Chalice insists it can survive tough price cycles between a sturdy cash balance and a potential partnership with Mitsubishi (MiningNews)

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Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Perseus increased its stake in Predictive to 19.9%, unwinding the previously announced cash equity swap position (PRU)

  • Chile’s Codelco reportedly made a US$500m offer to buy a 10% stake in Teck’s QB (Bloomberg)

  • Base Resources shareholders have voted in favour of the scheme to be taken over by Energy Fuels (BSE)

  • The US is set to block Nippon Steel’s takeover of US Steel after it concluded that the US$15b transaction posed a national security risk (FT)

  • First Majestic is acquiring Gatos Silver for US$970m in an all-scrip deal at a 16% premium (AG.NYSE) Gatos’ has a 70% interest in the Cerro Los Gatos underground silver mine in Mexico

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • Woodside priced a US$2b bond offering. It consists of US$1.25b of 10-year bonds with a coupon of 5.1% & US$0.75b of 30-year bonds with a coupon of 5.7% (WDS)

  • Arafura completed tranche 2 of their $20m raise, securing $5.8m (ARU)

  • Galan is in a trading halt pending a capital raise (GLN)

Word on the Decline

There have been some fascinating commodity price calls rolled out of the sell-side in the last week:

  • UBS analysts visited four Zimbabwe lithium mines and subsequently downgraded their price forecasts after determining that supply “is here to stay” (Twitter)

  • Goldman Sachs slashed its 2025 copper price forecast by US$5,000/tonne (to US$10,100/tonne) and says gold is its preferred commodity exposure (Bloomberg)

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In the Weeds

  • Why Howard Marks says you’re making a big mistake (AFR’s Chanticleer)

  • Government ministers must play by the rules in approving mines (Australian op-ed)

  • Dirty Business: How Mining Made Australia (YouTube doco)

  • China’s Xi Jinping courts African leaders to ward off geopolitical rivals (FT)

  • These Ancient Mines Transformed Prehistoric Europe (YouTube)

  • How much water does nuclear really need? (AFR)

Were you forwarded this email from someone else?

Today’s Top Tweet

Devil’s in the Detail

Seeking feedback on a proposed metric for public exploration companies to report to shareholders (sent in via a young-gun geologist)

Corporate All-in Cost per Metre-Equivalent drilled.

All expenses vs all actual exploration achieved.

  • Rock chip sample? 1mEq.

  • Gravity survey over a set amount of area? 1000mEq.

No metric is perfect especially when dealing with variance. And it certainly doesn’t capture the ‘effectiveness’ of exploration. But would the benefit of expenditure accountability be worth it?

Catch up on our latest episode

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The Next Domino Falls in the Lithium Market (46 min)

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