NexGen Jumps on Permitting Win

Paladin - Fission cops further delay, Spod steadies over $800/t

The Pre-Start

  • NexGen has had CNSC confirmation that it has addressed all information requests as part of the Federal technical review (NXG) the final steps in the approval process are scheduling a hearing date, subject to which the CNSC will render an approval decision on the Rook 1 Project

  • Jindalee Lithium dropped their PFS on their McDermitt project showing post-tax NPV8 of $3.2B from pre-production capex of $3B and 18% IRR at $24,000/t lithium carbonate (JLL)

  • Bravo Mining hit 13.4m @ 2.93% Cu, 0.39g/t Au from 133m at T5 which now covers ~300m of strike (BRVO.V) interesting thread from fund-manager Matt Geiger on the results (Twitter)

  • The recap DOCA for True North Copper was executed yesterday (TNC, KordaMentha)

  • RoyaltyCo, Elemental Altus, had revenue of US$3.7 million in the quarter from 1,941 GEOs (ELE.V) portfolio includes 2% NSR on Karlawinda

  • Numerous exploration results were shared today, from Boss, Talon, Xanadu, Talisman & Fenix

  • HostPlus have become substantial shareholders of Ora Banda

High Grade It

  • Canada’s federal gov’t is extending a national security review of Paladin’s acquisition of Fission, further delaying the deal (Bloomberg)

  • Global Lithium has succeeded in delaying its AGM, giving FIRB more time to investigate allegations of covert Chinese influence (AFR)

  • Aluminium resumed gains on concerns global supplies will tighten following China’s removal of an export tax rebate (Bloomberg)

  • Rio Tinto, Panguna stakeholders to address mine legacy impacts at roundtable (RIO)

  • The Wagner Group has earned over $2.5b from illicit gold mining since the invasion of Ukraine, says report by the World Gold Council (Mining.com)

  • Trafigura was accused by Swiss prosecutors of channelling bribes to an Angolan official through a network of ex-employees (Bloomberg)

  • BHP to spend up to $14b on Chilean copper expansion (Mining.com)

  • A plunge in water levels at the world’s largest man-made reservoir, which has left Zambia & Zimbabwe without power for hours, shows why they need to diversify their energy sources, according to a top official (Bloomberg)

  • Abu Dhabi’s IRH is in talks about buying an indirect stake in one of the world’s biggest tin producers, Alphamin (Bloomberg)

  • CBMM, Echion open world’s largest niobium anode production plant in Brazil (Mining.com) set for 2kt per year of XNO, equivalent to 1 GWh of Li-ion cells

MiningBull screens mining projects faster than Matty refreshes the uranium price. It’s a wicked tool, check it out.

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Paladin said the national security review into its acquisition of Fission has been extended until 31 December 2024 and clearance under the Investment Canada Act is still uncertain (PDN)

  • Sayona will merge with Piedmont in a transaction that will see each company retain 50% of the proforma and an additional $150m equity injected. RCF will contribute $69 million in a conditional placement (SYA)

  • EMR and GEAR will look to sell Ravenwood, the mine they’ve sunk more than $800m into, with Azure & UBS on the ticket (AFR)

  • The scheme vote in the Brightstar-Alto tie-up got over the line with 99.98% voting in favour of the deal, meaning DELPHI / Patronus were supportive in an impressive 77% turnout (AME)

  • Rio Tinto has moved to 98% interest in ERA and all signs point to compulsory acquisition from here (RIO)

  • Tungsten Mining has acquired the Mt Mulgine project from Minjar for $3.3m (TGN)

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • Osisko Metals announced a C$100m bought deal financing as John Burzynski joins as Executive Chairman (OM.V)

  • Labyrinth raised $19.5m while its Mulwarrie should complete end of the month (LRL)

  • Troilus Gold shared it had signed two Letters of Intent for up to US$500m from Scandinavian export credit agencies Finnvera & EKN (TLG.T)

Word on the Decline

Let’s run the ruler over the Paladin-Fission deal once again with Canadian regulators now extending the approval timelines at the exact same time as NexGen has moved its own permitting process forward.

We struggled to understand why Fission’s Chinese shareholder, CGN, could be the cause for the Canadian government to block a deal where Paladin acquires it. Wouldn’t the deal neatly dilute the Chinese ownership? The best explanation we could get to that question was this.

The deal has had everything: a stupidly tight shareholder vote (which included allegations of a fudged count), regulator hold-up, landowner support reneging, geopolitical influence, acquirer underperformance, and now allegations of misrepresentation of reserves too. From the mouth of Rick Rule overnight:

Paladin, it has been suggested, either knowingly or unknowingly misled the market with regards to reserves and resources. That needs to be thoroughly investigated by Australian authorities.

Rick Rule

Jesus. How are the M&A arbs playing this one?

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In the Weeds

  • Are parts of the lithium industry suffering from headinsanditis? (BMR)

  • The energy transition will be much cheaper than you think (AFR)

  • We found Samuel Terry Asset Management’s annual letter an interesting read (STAM) “We welcome corporate managers, who are interested in addressing undervaluation through shareholder alignment strategies, to reach out to us.”

  • Uranium: A Drama in the Making (Goehring & Rozencwajg)

  • This one flew under our radar yesterday but BHP’s investor presentation uploaded for a Chilean copper site visit is worth reading (BHP)

  • Rio’s push to protect women is making both sexes angry (AFR’s Chanticleer)

  • Does the Significant Price Increase Signal Reversal in the Lithium Hydroxide Market? (SMM)

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Today’s Top Tweet

Devil’s in the Detail

I’m not sure we can forgive this typo from Spartan when the correct spelling is literally in the adjacent column…

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