Mitsui Circles MinRes Gas, Anglo Whittles Down Buyers

Barrick suspends Porgera after violence, Rinehart's McPhee gets the go-ahead

The Pre-Start

  • Metals recycler Sims shared a positive FY25 start, estimating Q1 EBIT of c. $55m, with North America strong, though Chinese exports are challenging the Aus division (SGM)

  • Lotus’ scoping study for Letlhakane (Botswana) demonstrated a 15-year LoM producing 3Mlbpa, requiring US$465m in initial capital while operating at US$42/lb cash cost, while stating an NPV & IRR are “to be determined” (LOT)

  • Kingsgate provided guidance for FY25 of ~90koz AuEq @ US$1,725/oz AISC, while giving an outlook through to FY28 (KCN)

  • Red Hill reported its FY24 numbers, underscored by $1.70 in dividends after receiving Onslow-related payments (RHI)

  • Monadelphous provided a contract update, with new construction work at BHP’s Prom Hill expansion & S32’s Worsley among others (MND)

  • First Sentier picked up a 5% stake in Karoon Energy (KAR)

  • Tim Goyder bought a 5.4% stake in junior explorer Metal Hawk (MHK) The stock was up +55% yesterday

  • Boss Energy has added former IGO exec Matt Dusci as COO (BOE)

  • Global Lithium shareholder meeting ordered by court to be held on same day of upcoming AGM (GL1)

High Grade It

  • Fed cuts rates by half of a percentage point, though inflation is not “mission accomplished” (AFR)

  • Fitzy reckons Ivan Vella’s remake of IGO will be no easy task (MiningNews)

  • Potash market collapse raises questions about BHP’s $16bn bet (AFR)

  • Barrick suspended operations at Porgera in PNG after violent clashes in the area killed 20, including 2 company employees (Bloomberg)

  • Feasibility study to potentially reinstate the abandoned Greenbushes-Bunbury rail line remains on track despite lithium market conditions (BN)

  • Major overhaul of WA’s domestic gas policy to prevent ‘severe’ shortfall over next decade (West)

  • Labor gives Rinehart’s $600m McPhee iron ore mine the go-ahead after years of delays (AFR) 8mtpa to come on in FY26

  • State-run Coal India is scouting for critical minerals in Argentina and is in talks with officials in Chile for lithium (Reuters)

  • Billionaire prospector Mark Creasy set to rescue gold miner Calidus (West)

  • Almost all the output from South Australia’s solar farms was cut off at one point last weekend as owners chose to cut back generation to minimise losses (AFR)

  • India in talks to tackle rising steel imports, its steel minister said (Reuters)

  • There are no excuses for gas shortfalls in Australia & authorities must press ahead with unlocking the abundant reserves, a Santos exec has said (Australian)

  • China's thermal power generation returned to growth in August for the first time in four months, but still lagged as renewables continued to surge (Reuters)

  • Roger Cook uses parliamentary privilege to launch fiery spray at Clive Palmer’s greedy’ legal attack (West)

  • EV batteries with nickel get a boost in China as the market looks at “mid-nickel” battery technologies (Bloomberg)

  • GeelongPort has proposed the development of a new $500m renewables hub to support the development of Victoria’s offshore wind industry (Australian)

  • Gold spiked to as high as US$2,600 before retreating to US$2,560 (MiningNews)

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Japan’s Mitsui is understood to have lobbed a low-ball offer for MinRes’ onshore Perth Basin assets, prompting MINs to run an auction (Australian)

  • Anglo’s Australian coal auction has six credible bidders, all bidding for the entire portfolio of assets at c. US$3b plus US$700m in rehab costs (AFR) Mitsui holds pre-emptive rights at several of the mines

  • The U.S. national security panel reviewing Nippon Steel's US$14.9bn bid for U.S. Steel let the companies refile their application for approval of the deal (Reuters)

  • BlueScope Steel signed a preliminary agreement with Israel-based Helios Project to trial its green iron (Reuters)

  • Leonoil now controls >90% voting power in Sierra Rutile (SRX)

  • S2 Resources concluded the sale of its Finnish assets to Valkea Resources, comprising of $1.5m cash & $5.5m in stock (S2R)

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • Andean Silver received firm commitments for a $25m placement to accelerate drilling and further resource growth (ASL)

Word on the Decline

  • Maybe there’s even more to the Paladin-Fission merger that is still yet to play out… There is some scuttlebutt doing the rounds which is questioning the legitimacy of some of the votes included in the ultimate count by Fission security holders

  • Keep in mind they just got over the line with 67.9% vs the 66.7% minimum required in Canadian law

  • At the time, we commented on how it was a bit odd to us that neither Paladin nor Fission had announced the results until +7hrs after the vote. And in Paladin’s case, the announcement didn’t land until after the stock had begun trading

  • Let’s see if there’s another twist left in this one…

Do you have some Word on the Decline? Reply to this email or shoot a message to [email protected] directly. We will always take your privacy seriously.

In the Weeds

  • MinRes chief Chris Ellison takes on the naysayers and Federal Labor in interview (West)

  • CATL CEO & Founder Robin Zeng; interviewed by the head of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund (Apple Podcasts, Spotify)

  • Why Rio Tinto has bought 3000 hectares of grazing land (AFR)

  • Gold miners say they’re now disciplined as dealmaking heats up (Bloomberg)

  • Worried about another sell-off? Time to reframe how you view risk (AFR op-ed) Why the concept of risk is poorly understood

  • Xi Unleashes a Crisis for Millions of China’s Best-Paid Workers (Bloomberg)

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Today’s Top Tweet

Devil’s in the Detail

Are you just as confused as we are with the (lack of) NPV in Lotus’ scoping study for Letlhakane?

Lotus NPV

This may be old news to some but we just brushed up on it… Check out the intensity of the language used by Nippon Steel in their press release when they acquired the 20% interest in Blackwater

The entire release is worth a read.

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