MinRes Smashed 10% on Bleak Balance Sheet

IGO debt creeps up

The Pre-Start

  • MinRes has tanked 10% on annual results revealing net debt of $4.4b, FY25 guidance of 510kt lithium, ~23Mt iron ore and 305Mt in mining services volume plus $1.95b in capex (MIN) More below

  • South32’s FY24 NPAT was $380m, paying a dividend of 3.1c and a $200m buyback announced (S32) Net debt $762m and GEMCO capex in FY25 $125m

  • Sandfire closed FY24 with net debt of US$396m, with a focus on returning to net cash, while guiding to 154kt CuEq (SFR)

    • Also reported updated R&R for Motheo of 64Mt at 1.0% Cu and 13.8g/t Ag and 45.7Mt at 0.9% Cu and 13.5g/t Ag respectively

  • Genesis confirmed FY24 production of 134koz @ $2,356 AISC, closing with $173m cash & bullion. FY25 guidance 175koz @ $2,350/oz (GMD)

  • Westgold reported NPAT of $95m, FCF of $86m, confirmed cash, bullion and liquids of $263m, as well as declaring a 2.25cps dividend (WGX)

  • IGO declared a final dividend of 26c following an underlying FY24 NPAT of $319 million (IGO) devil in the detail with their gearing as the debt in the Windfield JV has grown to $850 million (IGO share)

  • Red 5 guided to 410koz @ $2,350/oz for FY25 (RED)

  • Wesfarmers’ Kwinana hydroxide plant is 80% complete, while Covalent submitted approvals to expand production at the mine & concentrator (WES) It’s spent $978m to date on its lithium venture 

  • Catalyst announced a maiden profit, after acquiring 3 companies in 3 years. It holds $38m cash and a $7m gold loan (CYL)

  • Aurelia closed with $117m net cash after reporting $81m in underlying EBITDA on $310m in revenue. $75m growth capital at Federation guided (AMI)

  • MAC’s half-year results showed underlying EBITDA of US$90m achieving free cash flow of US$37m. It holds cash of US$89m while its syndicated & mezzanine debt facilities totalled US$259m (MAC)

  • Nickel Industries will pay a 2.5c dividend after reporting EBITDA of US$131m. Its cash position moved back US$12m over the half to US$352m with US$753m in borrowings (NIC)

  • Metro Mining reported a record half of 1.5Mt bauxite shipped, and revenue up 30% YOY courtesy of Aussie bauxite prices up 22% (MMI)

  • Emanuel Datt has returned as a substantial shareholder of WA1, picking up ~$3m worth at ~$15.50/sh to pass the 5% threshold again (WA1)

  • Gold Road chief Duncan Gibbs sold $100k of GOR stock (~4% of his holding) (GOR)

High Grade It

  • The Greens have revamped their pre-2022 election agenda of imposing super-taxes on miners, banks and other large corporations (AFR)

  • Fortescue has raised its dividend payout ratio at the same time it cuts 700 jobs, paying an 89c final dividend (AFR)

  • Oil prices face increased risk of a spike following a “carry trade” that has diverted much-needed capital, according to Jeff Currie (Bloomberg)

  • Fortescue is guiding a modest uplift in shipments as its energy arm booked a near $1b loss (The Australian)

  • Vale’s next CEO will focus on stabilising production and restoring government relationships while fixing the miner’s image (Bloomberg)

  • Goldman Sachs lowered its 2025 average Brent forecast to US$77/bbl (Reuters)

  • NSW premier Minns said he ‘absolutely’ disagrees with federal decision to block McPhillamys tailing site (West)

  • BHP projects are not delivering sizeable growth and picking up assets on the cheap is proving difficult (FT)

  • Willy Packer lambasts Rio Tinto for “crucifying” shareholders as miner dictates $880m Jabiluka rescue raise (West)

  • Kazakhstan officially backs nuclear power referendum (Times of Central Asia)

  • ERA shares tank on heavily discounted Rio Tinto-led capital raise (CB)

  • Industry warns sovereign risk in Australia is rising (Mining.com)

  • LYC Amanda Lacaze flagged a slower ramp-up in production amid ‘stubbornly low’ rare earth prices that are weighing on its earnings (The Australian)

  • EDF & Westinghouse said they have appealed against a Czech decision to select Korea's KHNP as the supplier of a nuclear power plant (Reuters)

  • APA, the owner of Australia’s largest gas pipeline infrastructure, posted a ~10% jump in earnings, driven by strong demand and growth from its Pilbara operations (The Australian)

  • Karoon Energy shares lower on Baúna project delays (CB)

Flow Water Services Ad

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Paladin’s acquisition of Fission is in doubt but many shareholders that are actually in support of the deal simply aren’t registered to vote (Dataroom)

  • South32 completed the sale of Illawarra Met Coal to GEAR and M Resources today (S32)

  • Ellison suggested selling down MinRes’ stake in either Onslow’s iron ore or Mt Marion’s lithium while retaining the mining services contract could enable them to reduce balance sheet pressure

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • Following ERA’s market soundings process to fund Ranger rehab work, Rio Tinto was the only investor willing to provide a pre-commitment to support a $880m entitlement offer at $0.002/share (where Rio would do its pro-rata) (ERA)

  • Frontier Energy completed its $40m placement (FHE)

Word on the Decline

  • We have heard some unverified rumours that Newmont’s Telfer sale “is done”, lets see if any announcements come to market in the next few days supporting this

  • Separately, on this morning’s MinRes earnings call, Ellison played a 2-minute video of all the progress at Onslow. Lots of footage of the mining, the camp, the crushers, the conveyors, the port and the transshippers. But unless we missed it, we didn’t see any footage of the haul road… Understand it isn’t “complete” until ~October but it seemed an odd omission, why? They did upload some brief progress footage on their YouTube channel two weeks ago

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In the Weeds

  • An interesting interview with Pierre Lassonde on The Founding of Franco Nevada (YouTube)

  • Asia's imports of seaborne thermal coal ticked up in August to an eight-month high, driven by North Asia's developed economies (Reuters)

  • Why BHP is still bullish on iron ore and betting $7.4bn on copper (Livewire YouTube)

  • Alan Bond: The High-Flying Entrepreneur (YouTube)

  • Australia’s iron ore future is different, not dead (AFR Chanticleer)

  • Introduction to Valuation: Aswath Damodaran (YouTube)

  • A piece from First Quantum’s Director of Exploration Mike Christie “A dearth of quality copper discoveries… have we lost the plot?” (LinkedIn)

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Today’s Top Tweet

88888 is on fire this morning

Devil’s in the Detail

If you look at the detail of MinRes accounts, when you net off the build in working capital, there’s basically no cash…

Min Working Capital

On the smaller end of town, “surprise” and “startle” are two possible ways you could describe most people’s reaction to self-proclaimed “dedicated West Australian lithium and nickel sulphide explorer” Nickel Search’s foray into Queensland copper.

We guess it fits in the battery thematic?

We hope the new adventure across the continent is fruitful for NIS, perhaps a name change to Metals Search is next?

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