MinRes Onslow ramp up progresses

Are IGO getting a TLEA divvy?

January 30, 2025

The Pre-Start

  • MinRes is maintaining FY25 guidance for continuing ops (costs running above guidance ATM), with Onslow progressing towards 35Mtpa nameplate run (4.4M wmt produced Dec Q) and net debt of $5.1b expected as at 31 Dec. Mining services did 68Mt (flat QoQ) + secured new contracts, attributable spod production 136k dmt with average realised SC6 price US$827/dmt (MIN)

  • IGO down 3% on their quarterly result. Greenbushes produced 392kt of spod con, but only shipped 312kt. Cash costs at Greenbushes remained low at A$324/t for an average realised price US$736/t (but TLEA lost $56m in EBITDA, excluding the upcoming Kwinana impairment). No TLEA dividend expected for 2H25. Nickel production at Nova was weak and sees them under the bottom end of guidance due to end of mine life challenges (IGO)

  • Sandfire produced 25.5kt copper and 23.3kt zinc, whilst reducing net debt by $57m (now sitting at $288m). Matsa and Motheo C1 operating costs performed well at US$1.51/lb and US$1.22/lb (SFR)

  • Resolute produced 340koz for CY24, (below guidance) at US$1,476/oz (above guidance), finishing the Q with ~US$66m net cash which reflects US$160m settlement payments to Mali gov’t in Q4. CY25 guidance 275-300koz at AISC US$1,650 - $1,750/oz (RSG)

  • Capricorn Metals produced 28.7koz at Karlawinda at an AISC of $1,490/oz. Sitting with cash and gold of $363m after raising $200m during the quarter. $30m has been spent so far on budgeted $260m for Mt Gibson (CMM)

    • BlackRock also increased their stake in Capricorn to ~6.2% (CMM)

  • Adriatic Metals produced 934koz AgEq at Vares in Q4, with commercial production now expected to be reached in Q1 due to weather delays, $24m in cash & finished concentrate end of Dec ‘24 (ADT)

  • Bannerman finished the quarter with $81m as early works continue at their Etango uranium project. Project is still awaiting FID (BMN)

  • Lotus finished the Q with ~$133m cash as Kayelekera restart workstreams progress (LOT)

  • Black Cat finished the quarter with ~$57m cash as restart ops at Paulsens and ongoing open pit mining at Myhree progress (BC8)

  • Predictive had ~$29m at the end of the Q with Bankan DFS workstreams on schedule to be completed in H2 2025, more drilling planned and advancing permitting (PDI)

  • Syrah had US$87m cash at the end of the Q, no production at Balama due to ongoing protest actions, awarded US$165m in Jan for Vidalia further expansion project (SYR)

  • Karoon Energy intends to undertake a further US$75m on-market buyback of its shares over CY25, combined with the currently active US$25m buyback (KAR)

  • Barminco and Regis have agreed to extend the existing underground mining services contract at Duketon, additional contract value worth ~$180m (PRN)

  • St Barbara have Warden Court hearing dates set for the renewal of the Simberi Mining Lease on 8 and 9 April (SBM)

  • Carnarvon announced its intention to put in place an on-market buy back for up to 10% of the company’s issued capital (CVN)

  • Southern Cross reported assay results at its Christina prospect, including 1.7m at 204.1g/t Au (SX2)

  • Centaurus finished the quarter with $18m cash as Jaguar value engineering process works progresses & Boi Novo exploration continues (CTM)

  • Spartan commenced their 85km surface and underground drilling program at Never Never & reported some assay results from late 2024 drilling (SPR)

  • BlackRock has emerged as a ~5% shareholder of Gold Road (GOR)

  • Hawke’s Point increased their stake in Rox Resources to ~19.6% post completion of the recent capital raising (RXL)

High Grade It

  • Pilbara chief Dale Henderson reckons the lithium price rout has bottomed out (AFR), while indicating further acquisitions are “not off the cards”, but plenty to keep them busy for now (West)

  • A new record Aussie dollar gold price was achieved this week as local gold producers outlined their growth ambitions (BN)

  • Vale posts highest annual iron ore output since 2018 despite fourth-quarter slide (Mining.com)

  • Chris Ellison reportedly summoned by ASIC (West), while MinRes repairing Onslow haul road after heavy rainfall from Cyclone Sean (West)

  • China PMI contracts as economic sentiment softens, its lowest level since August (MNN)

  • Wholesale electricity prices jump on coal outages and record demand in fresh bill threat (Australian)

  • EU to propose Russian aluminium ban in sweeping sanctions package (Bloomberg)

  • Develop mulls Woodlawn stake sale ahead of bringing the mothballed asset back into production (BN)

  • De Grey’s top shareholder Gold Road still won’t bite on $5b NST takeover, but says “options open” (West)

  • Botswana’s leader says diamond deal reached with De Beers (Mining.com)

  • EU to look at “flexibilities” for carmakers over emission fines (Bloomberg)

Rock Solid Data, by Mineral Metrics

Data junky Mineral Metrics coming through with the gold goods

Capricorn Metals have snuck into 2nd place today, beating Ramelius by $1 with $1,490/oz AISC. We don’t think St Barbara will be bothering the leaders too much.

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Two Indonesian bidders have joined the hunt for the Ravenswood gold mine which is on the market for about $2bn (Dataroom)

  • Aston and Torque provided an update on their proposed merger including the appointment of an independent expert & confirmation of deal terms (ASO)

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • Cornish Metals raised £56m to boost its South Crofty tin mine (Mining.com)

  • Viridis is in trading halt pending a capital raising (VMM)

  • Matsa raised $3m to fast-track development of its Devon Pit gold mine (MAT)

In the Weeds

  • Barry Fitzgerald reckons BHP could return for Anglo, but Glencore to be left in the cold by Rio (MNN)

  • DeepSeek reveals how badly energy industry needs AI for growth (Bloomberg)

  • DeepSeek Chief’s Journey From Math Geek to Global Disruptor (WSJ)

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Devil’s in the Detail

Talk about an efficiency - Ramelius’ Q2 FY25 investor call yesterday didn’t beat around the bush and was done & dusted in about 20 mins, with only a question or two about outperformance on grade at Cue and capital allocation plans for all their cash.

Even Zeppy himself was chuffed!

Ramelius Q2 FY25 webinar transcript from Quartr

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Which Miners are Making Bank this Quarter? (53 min)

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