Miners Warn on Commodity Outlook as Prices Steady

Paladin quiet on Fission, Resolute builds cash

The Pre-Start

  • Resolute produced 167koz at US$1,442/oz for the half, with net cash increasing to US$97m (RSG)

  • Paladin reported US$60m NPAT and FY25 guidance of 4-4.5Mlbs of U3O8 at a cost of US$28-31/lb, mention of the Fission deal is brief (PDN)

  • Jupiter Mines will pay its shareholders a 0.25cps dividend and highlights a “bearish” manganese market outlook (JMS)

  • Aeris reported a $24m loss on adjusted EBITDA of $107m. Cash advanced to $25m over the year, with $66m borrowed/raised (AIS)

  • Beach Energy copped an ASX aware letter on the revision of 2P oil and gas reserves (BPT) It was queried by the ASX on reserves downgrades (BPT)

  • Perseus appointed Rick Menell as independent non-exec chair (PRU)

  • Orion Minerals were granted a key water licence for their Okiep copper project (ORN)

  • Hillgrove delivered $40m in revenue & $1.6m in operating cash flow ($7.7m underlying EBITDA) for the half. Closed with $7.7m cash (HGO)

  • Global Lithium completed DFS met testwork, confirming a lithia recovery of 78% for the study (GL1)

  • Strike Energy is in a trading halt in relation to an Erregulla Deep 1 drilling result announcement (STX )

  • Collins St increased their stake in Barton Gold to 8% (BGD)

  • A few junior goldie mining updates:

    • Black Cat’s Paulsens refurb is “on track,” gold due Dec (BC8)

    • Mining kicked off at Horizon Minerals’ Boorara project, first ore to be processed at Paddington in October (HRZ)

High Grade It

  • “Nervous nellies” in Australia are fretting about MIN’s debt, but Ellison reckons US bond investors would prefer to talk fishing (AFR)

  • In the face of the lithium slump, Greenbushes output could jump by ~10% (AFR)

  • South32 boss Graham Kerr reckons the conditions the EPA wants to impose on the WA alumina industry are alarming (BN)

  • Aussie Greens leader Adam Bandt announced a 40% tax on “excessive” profits of big companies to fund cost of living support (MiningNews)

  • South32’s boss Graham Kerr warned WA carbon emissions limits were ‘way above’ reasonable (AFR)

  • Wesfarmers’ retail business carried the team while its lithium division struggled (BN)

  • Lynas said Chinese demand for its materials is picking up, with prices showing signs of recovery (Bloomberg)

  • MinRes is charging head first into the critical minerals rout & softening iron ore market with $5b of debt and China looking wobbly (AFR’s Chanticleer)

  • Zambia plans to establish an investment company that will control at least 30% of critical minerals production from future mines (Bloomberg)

  • A WA salt lake potash project has been tangled in a legal dispute over loan payment arrangements (BN)

  • ‘Your crystal ball is as good as mine’: IGO chief Ivan Vella (West)

  • Base metals snapped their rallies amid a strong dollar, lingering demand worries & uncertainty about the Fed’s easing path (Bloomberg)

  • Resources minister Madeleine King said a union push into the

    Pilbara was an opportunity for collaboration, but warned against hysteria (BN)

  • Why the Pilbara is not going to explode in a wave of strikes (AFR op-ed)

  • Mineral Resources will not pay a final dividend for the first time in more than a decade as it looks to preserve cash (AFR)

  • Impala posted a fiscal-year loss after a slump in metal prices prompted the South African miner to write down asset values (Bloomberg)

  • Ganfeng will delay capex as losses hit the bottom line (Bloomberg)

  • Chinese media are calling 10% rise in iron ore in 10 days “irrational” (Bloomberg)

  • Ghana will build a small-scale nuclear reactor (Reuters)

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • FIRB has asked for another month extension to review Miracle Iron’s acquisition of CZR Resources’ Robe Mesa iron ore project (CZR)

  • The biggest aluminium producer in the Middle East, Emirates Aluminium, wants more acquisitions to boost growth (Bloomberg)

  • Dataroom is strumming up Gold Fields as a suitor for Magnetic Resources saying Genesis is not doing M&A at this time (Australian) you can check out our dive into Magnetic on the poddie here

  • Zambia plans to establish a state firm to own 30% of critical minerals production from future mines (Bloomberg)

  • Fortescue made a 39.8% strategic investment in green hydrogen hopeful HyTerra (HYT)

  • Leonoil up to 25% of Sierra Rutile as part of its takeover (SRX)

  • Deterra announced the court sanction of the scheme of arrangement to acquire Trident (DRR)

  • Santana is seeking approval for a share split, on the 1 for 3 basis, to improve liquidity & “affordability” (SMI)

  • Tigers Realm advised that the one remaining condition in the US$49m sale of its Russian assets should be satisfied in the near future (TIG)

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • Meeka Metals is in a trading halt, raising $23m via a two tranche placement (MEK) following 50% share price rise of the gold developer over the last month

  • Cyprium have entered into a binding term sheet for offtake financing with Glencore for $40m, plus a commitment from CYM to raise $20m before year end (CYM)

  • ERA launched its previously flagged $880m renounceable entitlement offer, Rio committed to subscribe for their pro-rata $760m (ERA)

  • Talga upsized their prospectus offer to $9m (previously $5m) (TLG)

Word on the Decline

  • As usual, these are unverified rumours and you should always take them with a grain of salt

  • Is Creasy’s intention with Calidus to wrap the project with his stake and Andover, some of his other tenure, and IPO the vehicle?

  • It wouldn’t make much sense to us… But heck, he’s made a lot more money than us so if true, let’s see.

Do you have some Word on the Decline? Reply to this email or shoot a message to [email protected] directly. We will always take your privacy seriously.

In the Weeds

  • No other investor has a life story quite as unbelievable as Li Lu (FT) It has been an astounding journey for the great investor

  • Berkshire Hathaway became the first US company outside the tech sector to surpass $US1T in market value (AFR)

  • Understanding Buybacks: Corporate America's Worst Sin or a Slightly Better Structure for a Dividend? (Capital Gains)

  • High interest rates, not the passage of time, have restored price stability (Economist)

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Devil’s in the Detail

Want to watch the MinRes results in their entirety after tuning in to our pod yesterday? Here’s the recording on their YouTube.

They left comments “turned on” which are pretty interesting to read…

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How Low Will MinRes Go? (1hr 8 mins)

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