Lynas Dips as Cash Tightens

Service business NRW remains on hold over Gupta debts, Allied Gold sell down Mali stake

The Pre-Start

  • Lynas’ first-half EBITDA came in at $38m, missing consensus expectations by 44%. Cash now sits at $308m (down $378m yoy) (LYC)

  • Ora Banda’s half-year saw it earn $91m in operational cash flow & $84m in EBITDA, with cash closing at $58m (OBM)

  • NRW provided an update on its mining services agreement with OneSteel (administrators appointed 19 Feb), advising ~$113m is owed (NWH)

  • Emerald’s half-year accounts saw it earn $130m in EBITDA (up 37% yoy) while it’s cash pile increased $73m over the half to $217m (EMR)

  • Paladin sold 1.1Mlb U3O8 over 1H generating US$30m in operating cashflow. It holds US$166m in cash & investments, with repayments on its drawn US$100m commencing this quarter (PDN) Down 6%

  • 29Metals reported full-year EBITDA of $58m ($101m from Golden Grove). It closed with net drawn debt of $10m (with $262m of drawn debt) (29M)

  • Aurelia reported first-half underlying EBITDA of $50m, with closing cash of $97m. Guidance remains unchanged while Great Cobar FID is targeted for this half (AMI)

  • Sovereign Metals reported that medium to coarse Kasiya graphite concentrate has met specifications, allowing them to market & look at offtakes (SVM)

  • Brazilian Critical Minerals released a scoping study on Ema, with a US$55m capex and NPV8 of US$498m and 55% IRR (BCM)

  • A few on-market purchases from these board members:

    • Rio Tinto NED Dean Dalla Valle purchased ~$50k of RIO stock (RIO)

    • Westgold Non-Exec Chair Cheryl Edwardes acquired ~$30k of WGX stock (WGX)

    • Chalice NED Richard Hacker picked up ~$100k of CHN stock (CHN)

High Grade It

  • Rio Tinto looks to water down London’s influence (MNN)

  • Woodside warns Australian gas plans at risk by delays to North West Shelf approvals (Australian)

  • The biggest outage in 15 years left millions of Chileans without electricity, shutting off power to major copper mines and sparking evacuations of businesses and panic buying (Bloomberg)

  • If WA Labor is re-elected, incumbent premier Roger Cook has promised royalty relief for vanadium products (MNN)

  • Kyiv has agreed terms with Washington on a minerals deal that Ukrainian officials hope will improve relations with the Trump administration (FT)

  • Iron ore futures prices faltered, weighed down by a recovery in iron ore shipments, with increasing levies and legislations on Chinese steel exports putting further pressure on sentiment (Reuters)

  • Lynas Rare Earths first-half profit slumped 85% from the year before following a decline in output prices (Bloomberg)

  • ASIC said it was ‘aware’ of an ‘unusual’ share price spike in the lead up to Fenix Resources’ $71m deal for Creasy’s CZR (West)

  • MinRes has again been forced to defend its disclosure standards after being hit with a long list of questions from the ASX (Australian)

  • Metals including aluminum and copper declined as moves by Trump to restrict Chinese investments undermined market sentiment (Bloomberg)

  • Gold prices declined on Tuesday, as investors booked profits after bullion hit a record high of US$2,956/oz (Reuters)

  • BHP will kick off a massive US$10.8b investment program in Chile with the overhaul of an aging copper plant as it battles grade declines (Bloomberg)

  • The DRC’s president is cautioning Western countries to avoid buying smuggled minerals from Rwanda (NM)

  • First Quantum is pressing to export copper concentrate from its shut mine in Panama, requiring gov’t approval to move the 120kt (Reuters)

  • De Beers and Botswana’s gov’t will jointly fund a marketing campaign to resuscitate demand for natural diamonds (Bloomberg)

Rock Solid Data, by Mineral Metrics

Tier 1 assets sell for a premium! Are charts or data eating up your time? Mineral Metrics has you sorted.

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Billionaire Mark Creasy strikes third big Pilbara iron ore deal this month (AFR), while FIRB failed to meet its own deadlines in a year-long delay assessing previous Chinese deal (Australian)

  • The AFR has reported NGEx is eyeing up potential corporate action, with investors lined up for an Aussie roadshow in early April (AFR)

  • Matsa recommended to shareholders that they reject the unsolicited on-market takeover offer by Patronus in the recently released target’s statement (MAT)

    • The target statement also revealed Matsa entered into a tenement option agreement with AngloGold to acquire the majority of the Lake Carey gold project (excl. certain assets)

  • Wall St banks are racing for a slice in the action of battery maker CATL’s proposed US$5b Hong Kong exchange listing (Bloomberg)

  • Canada’s Allied Gold has started a process to apply for a listing on the New York Stock Exchange, joining an industrywide migration (Bloomberg). It also did a deal with UAE group Ambrosia, selling down Sadiola which will net it US$375m, while the group will also take a 12% stake in the miner for a further US$110m (AAUC.TSE)

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • Merdeka Battery gets $1.4 billion loan for new nickel plant located on Sulawesi island (Bloomberg)

  • Solis Minerals raised $4.5m for copper drilling in Peru (SLM)

Word on the Decline

  • “No penalties, no clawbacks”… How about a take-or-pay? 🤔

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In the Weeds

  • Sanjeev Gupta’s largest creditor leads an Insta-rich life (AFR’s Rear Window)

  • Strictly Boardroom: Nostradamus on lithium price forecasting (MNN)

  • Fenix’s bid for CZR says a lot about investor confidence in the future of the Pilbara’s iron ore industry (BN)

  • Gold deal of the decade (Livewire)

  • Massive Simandou mine can end Australia's golden iron ore age, or start new one (Reuters op-ed)

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Devil’s in the Detail

For the 5 people that were as hooked as I (Trav) was to The Battle for Sierra Rutile (aka The Fumble in the Jungle) then hook into these two articles, sequentially. Honestly, someone could write a Netflix series at this point on the saga:

  1. Kobi Walker, Leonoil & Sierra Rutile Refute Kamarainba’s Defamatory Allegations (The Calabash)

  2. President Bio keeps cocaine lord in the family (Africa Confidential)

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