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Liontown Surge on Ramp-Up Result
Yancoal print nearly half a billion while Santos deliver Carnarvon hammer blow at Dorado
The Pre-Start
Northern Star’s quarterly highlighted 410koz in sales at an AISC of $2,128/oz, with $72m in FCF generated. All-In Costs were $3,278/oz while FY25 guidance is unchanged (NST)
Bellevue reiterates that it is on track to meet H2FY24 guidance of 90koz gold production and no longer expects to process low-grade open-pit stockpiles (BGL)
Yancoal added $480m cash in the quarter (to $2.46b). Attributable saleable coal was 9.7Mt, with costs set to fall within guidance (YAL) dividend stance to be updated in Feb too
Liontown shares jumped 10% after it delivered 89kdmt of SC5.2, selling 81kdmt @ US$806/SC6e. It reported cash of $193m plus a further $12m in receivables, with $17m of net cash generated from operating activities (LTR)
Carnarvon provided an update on Dorado Phase 1, with the JV (80% STO, 10% CVN 10% CPC Corp.) deciding against purchasing an FPSO vessel as well as not entering FEED, thereby deferring FID beyond 2025 (CVN) Down 18%
BCI Minerals satisfied all CPs for its first project debt drawdown to fund development of its Mardie project, with binding offtake agreements now in place that cover various Asian markets (BCI)
Deep Yellow finished the quarter with $238m while its delayed March 2025 FID approaches, with costings and quotes for equipment & construction due (DYL)
Hillgrove produce 2,737t of Cu at an all-in cost of US$3.97/lb over the quarter. Cash, receivables & inventory fell by $2.5m. It set CY25 guidance at 12 - 14kt Cu @ AIC of US$3.40 - 3.90/lb (HGO)
Xanadu provided a Kharmagtai update, with the company set to meet JV partner Zijin in early Feb to discuss scope, budget & schedule through to FID (XAM)
Brazilian Rare Earths shared a round of diamond drill results from Monte Alto, highlighting hits of up to 6.96% NdPr (BRE)
Meeka shared further drill results, including a hit of 33m @ 3.07g/t from St Anne’s from its latest RC program (MEK)
Alkane released drill results from beneath the open-cut resource at San Antonio, intercepting narrow gold mineralisation (ALK)
Agrimin received WA state environmental approval for the development of its Mackay potash project (AMN)
High Grade It
Gina Rinehart and her top execs are on the hunt for investment in the US as Trump prepares to take the reins (Australian)
Iron ore could collapse 30% as Rio floods the market with fresh supply (AFR)
Australia’s major iron ore export port has reopened as Cyclone Sean risk recedes (West)
Goldman said the copper market is pricing in odds of about 50% that there’ll be a 10% U.S. tariff on the metal by the end of the first quarter of this year (Reuters)
Unions allege BHP of exploiting a labour hire loophole (Australian)
A natural gas storage venture backed by Origin boosted the size of its proposed plant off Victoria’s coast by 50% amid keen appetite from customers (AFR)
Alcoa welcomes a $2b aluminium tax credit from the federal government (BN)
US splashes $1.6b cash on Aussie-owned projects, Ioneer and Element 25 sharing in the US DoE grants (MNN)
Terramin’s last ditch legal bid to revive its gold mining plans at Bird in Hand has failed (Australian)
The LME has approved Hong Kong as a warehouse location for the first time as the bourse seeks a stronger link to mainland China (Bloomberg)
China, the world's top coal importer, bought less Russian coal in 2024 while increasing purchases from other key suppliers, led by Australia (Reuters)
IGO warns of processing losses as lithium stockpile grows (AFR)
South32 is bringing Groote Elyandt manganese mine back to life after massive insurance payout (West)
Oil was steady ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump, as the market braced for a period of uncertainty (Bloomberg)
INDABA is around the corner. Get your tickets now and catch Trav and JD in Cape Town in two weeks time
Wheelin’ n Dealin’
Lithium Energy confirmed receipt of a US$6m deposit in relation to the sale of its interest in the Solaroz lithium brine project (LEL)
Rattlin’ the Tin
Word on the Decline
We’re hearing a bit of chatter that Rio Tinto’s Simandou project is behind schedule with the first iron ore tonnes much more likely to come mid-2026 rather than late 2025 like Rio re-iterated just a few days ago….
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In the Weeds
Dryblower reckons its time for mega break-ups not mergers (MNN)
Huw McKay: Australia doesn’t need a clean commodities trading company (Mandarin)
Would a combined Rio Tinto-Glencore mining giant be a good idea for investors? (Livewire)
Mooted Rio-Glencore deal shows money is moveable, the mega-merger could diminish Australia’s importance in the mineral world (MNN)
Contrarian Bet Emerges That Next Fed Move Is Higher, Not Lower (Bloomberg)
Four reasons investors should be very nervous in 2025 (AFR)
Thermal Coal Market Update (The Coal Trader)
Contrarian resources investor Rusty Delroy says ‘quiet critical mineral’ tin speaks the loudest (Stockhead)
Today’s Top Tweet
$YAL $YAL.AX
$7.75B market cap, only added $480M this quarter and are down to their last $2.46B in cash
What a bunch of losers #CoalTwitter
— mondy (@mondyinvest)
10:22 AM • Jan 20, 2025
Devil’s in the Detail
The disappointing news for Carnarvon shareholders from Santos’ non-decision to purchase the FPSO reminds us of the very first question asked by analysts after STO’s 2.5hrs of talks at their Investor Day two months ago…
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