It's Quarterlies Mayhem

Goldies are splashing cash, while U names recover from DeepSeek sell off

January 29, 2025

The Pre-Start

  • Pilbara reported a reduction in production volume due to transition to P850 model of 188.2kdmt spod con at op costs US$406/t (FOB), ending the Q with $1.2b cash with capex at P100 now largely spent, wet commissioning underway (PLS) Pilgangoora ops essentially washing their face

  • Boss Energy up 13% after declaring commercial production and releasing cost guidance. 215klb of IX production sees them on track to meet FY25 guidance of 850klbs U3O8. C1 costs for 2H25 are US$23-25/lb. Cash went backwards $1.5m, but liquid assets was up $7m to $252m (BOE)

  • Whitehaven produced 7.8Mt coal for the quarter, up 22% on the Sep qtr (revenue split of ~63% met and ~37% thermal). Net debt reduced $200m to $1.0b, with US$1.08b from the 30% sell down of Blackwater expected to be received in Q3 FY25 (WHC)

  • Ramelius produced ~85koz at AISC $1,491/oz generating ~$175m underlying FCF before SPR raise participation & divvies, cash & gold balance +$500m (RMS)

  • Vault produced ~98koz at AISC $2,269/oz for the quarter building cash & bullion by $52m to ~$575m, KOTH plant expansion approved and FY25 gold sales guidance tightening to 390-410koz at AISC $2,250 - $2,250/oz (VAU)

  • MAC Copper produced ~11.3kt Cu at 4.1% Cu at C1 cost of US$1.66/lb for the Q, meeting CY24 guidance, generating US$30m cash from ops, de-levering balance sheet with raise proceeds (MAC)

  • Gold Road reported ~91.6koz Gruyere production (100% basis) at AISC of $1,811/oz for the Q, slightly missing CY24 guidance but a record quarterly FCF of ~$76m. Cash, bullion & listed investments nearing $1bn (GOR)

  • A few updates from Perseus 

    • Produced ~132koz at AISC of US$1,127/oz for the quarter, with cash & bullion soaring to +US$700m (PRU)

    • Final investment decision to develop the CMA underground project at its Yaouré gold mine, first production expected for Q1 FY27 (PRU)

  • Develop saw a 21% lift in contract revenue from Bellevue, and first con & cash for Woodlawn due in Jun qtr. They explicitly detailed 20% of Woodlawn is up for sale. Cash sits at $112m, after drawing $102m of debt (DVP)

  • Aurelia generated operating CF of ~$20m from Peak, with first concentrate production from Federation ore in Dec ‘24, cash balance decreased from $103m in Sep to $97m in Dec after investing ~$19m at Federation (AMI)

  • BCI reported pump commissioning & ops ramping up according to plan at Mardie, construction of salt first phase +56% complete and financial close achieved on $981m facility last Q, first drawn down this Q (BCI)

  • 29Metals finished CY24 within guidance producing 21.9kt Cu & 56.7kt Zn for the year at Golden Grove, but cash moved backwards after excluding raise, facility drawdown and insurance proceeds. Site water inventory reductions of ~200 megalitres at Capricorn Copper, CY25 guidance also out (29M)

  • Capricorn released their quarterly exploration update on Mt Gibson and Karlawinda including a number of drilling assay results (CMM)

  • Brightstar commenced ore haulage from the Laverton Hub to Genesis’ Laverton mill, first gold pour scheduled for Mar ‘25 (BTR)

  • Lotus secured additional uranium offtake with North American utility group PSEG Nuclear (LOT)

  • The Takeovers Panel received an application from Global Lithium seeking a review of the panel’s recent decision in relation to alleged undisclosed shareholder association (GL1)

  • Emmerson Resources reported a maiden mineral resource on White Devil for ~490koz at 4.2g/t Au (ERM)

  • Galan reported an increase to its Candelas project mineral resource (GLN)

  • American Rare Earths reported an increase to its Halleck Creek mineral resource to 2.63bn tonnes at 3,926 ppm TREO (ARR)

  • Black Cat provided a progress update on Paulsens, with plant commissioning progressing to plan & focus turning to processing higher-grade material (BC8)

  • Meeka finished the quarter with $55m cash and no debt as development of its Murchison project progresses, open pit mining due to start Mar ‘25 (MEK)

  • Antipa released assay results from RC & diamond drilling completed last year at Minyari Dome, including 86m at 1.7g/t Au and 0.41% Cu from 121m (AZY)

High Grade It

  • Uranium miners sink as Inkai resumes production; DeepSeek raises doubt on energy demand (Capital Brief)

  • Kazatomprom sees increase sales and output in 2025, producing 6,500t of uranium for Q4 (MNN)

  • “Conflict minerals” behind DRC crisis as M23 rebels claim to have “taken over” Goma city (MNN)

  • Copper edged lower after US President Donald Trump said he planned to impose import tariffs on the metal (Bloomberg)

  • Trump said he would impose the tariffs on aluminium & copper, as well as steel, to entice producers to make them in the US (Reuters)

  • Lead & zinc may be geological sister metals but their market fortunes have been very different in recent months, but analysts are saying it won’t last (Reuters)

  • A WA port is set to make its first sulphur export in many years after the Ravensthorpe nickel closure led to Lynas getting their hands on it (West)

  • Middle East becomes fastest growing renewables market outside China (FT)

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Andrew Forrest launched an off-market bid to acquire Red Hawk, the owner of a key iron ore deposit near Fortescue’s existing Pilbara mines (AFR)

  • Dataroom reported that EMR has pushed the deadline for bids on Ravenswood, citing Chinese interest and an overlap with Chinese New Year (Australian)

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • Arrow Minerals raised $7m with a 1 for 2 oppy for drilling and met testing at the Niagara Bauxite and Simandou North Iron projects (AMD)

Word on the Decline

  • Word on the Decline is the “cynic” and the “nerd” from Money of Mine are descending on South Africa as we speak, ahead of next week’s INDABA conference

  • Be sure to keep an eye out for the fellas and say g’day 👋

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In the Weeds

  • Dryblower on the fossil fuel fight: Twiggy vs the Don (MNN)

  • Mining and conflict in the eastern DRC (ISIP) A fascinating interactive guide of interest to Alphamin followers

  • How GM topped Tesla to become one of the fastest-growing US EV Makers (Forbes)

  • Why free trade matters according to Kingsley Jones (Livewire)

  • More exposure to copper the prize as big miners look to mega-mergers (Australian)

  • How much subsidies do fossil fuels receive? (Our World in Data)

  • Has China just burst an AI bubble? (Livewire)

  • DeepSeek: everything you need to know right now (Exponential View)

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