Iron Ore Cracks as Commodities Hit with Recession Fears

Base metals weaken, oil hits 4-year low & the ASX trades down 2%

April 09, 2025

The Pre-Start

  • Evolution Mining advised the QLD gov’t will invest in the Mt Rawdon pumped hydro project to help progress the project towards FID (EVN)

  • Underground production at Liontown’s Kathleen Valley has commenced, with processing of development ore delivering lithia recoveries exceeding 70% (LTR)

  • Gold Road made clarifications on the competent persons as well as redacting certain points from yesterday’s exploration target announcement (GOR)

  • K92 produced 48koz AuEq at a head grade of 14.9g/t AuEq over the first quarter, with costs not yet provided (KNT.TSX)

  • Magnetic completed metallurgical testwork at LJN4, with overall average gold recovery across the project for all oxidation states remaining at 92% (MAU)

  • Antipa advised that IGO has elected to withdraw from the Paterson project farm-in it entered in 2020, leaving AZY with 100% ownership of the tenements (AZY)

  • Underground drilling from Pantoro’s OK mine, with a dedicated rig targeting the Star of Erin and O2 Lodes throughout 2025 (PNR)

  • Minerals 260 is anticipated to be back on the ASX boards just after 10am AEST on 10 April post completion of its Bullabulling acquisition & capital raise (MI6)

  • The underground portal at Brightstar’s Fish mine was successfully blasted, with development on track for first ore production in the June 25 Q (BTR)

  • Global Lithium agreed a variation to its offtake deal with Canmax, removing reciprocal termination rights and setting a timeline to negotiate pricing (GL1)

  • Challenger updated the resource across its Ecuadorian projects while it looks to realise value through a TSX listing, sale or farm-in (CEL)

  • Alligator Energy advised drilling at its Big Lake uranium project has been curtailed due to an imminent significant weather event (AGE)

  • Caprice Resources appointed Rob Waugh (ex Musgrave Minerals) as its Non-Exec Chair (CRS)

  • Franklin lifted their Saturn stake to 9.15% (STN)

  • Xanadu Mines shared a new presentation

High Grade It

  • Trump rattled global investors again on Tuesday as he pressed ahead with his plan for aggressive tariffs, with the S&P 500 down 1.6% (FT)

  • Oil extended a brutal selloff that’s driven prices to a 4-year low (Bloomberg)

  • The US says the 104% duties on imports from China will take effect shortly after midnight on Wednesday (AFR)

  • Data reveals the full impact of cyclones on Pilbara iron ore peers, with Rio’s quarterly shipments at their lowest levels since 2019 (West)

  • Alphamin could soon resume operations at Bisie after Rwanda-backed rebels withdrew from the area, a top US official said (Bloomberg)

  • The US is closing on a deal with the DRC that would see American companies take more control of critical mineral assets in return for greater backing (FT)

  • Gold Road has pushed for a higher bid as the underground mine study release has suggested life will go on at Gruyere (AFR)

  • BHP-run coal miner BMA has dumped contractors hired for rehabilitation work in Queensland on weak coal prices (Australian)

  • BHP is ready to start spending US$13bn to overhaul its aging copper mines in Chile, but is grappling with red tape, an executive said (Bloomberg)

  • Chile needs to speed up its permitting processes to help copper mining expand ahead of an expected supply gap, Anglo American’s Chile CEO said (Reuters)

  • Queensland will upgrade units of a coal power station originally planned for 2028 closure and assess its lifespan, according to the state gov’t (Bloomberg)

  • Codelco is aiming for the upper end of its copper output range, and has plans to return to bond market, its CEO said (Reuters)

  • South32 plans to resume shipments of manganese from GEMCO as soon as next month, according to Chinese metals message boards (QQTHJ)

  • Glencore former CEO & largest shareholder Ivan Glasenberg added to his stake for the first time in a decade (Bloomberg) 10.09% vs 9% previously

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Peabody said it was reviewing all options related to its US$3.78bn acquisition agreement with Anglo American for its Australian met-coal assets after an ignition event at a mine (Reuters, BTU)

  • Montage Gold is officially on African Gold’s share register, post the strategic partnership announced last month (A1G)

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • Endeavour Silver closed its US$45m bought deal financing (EDR.TSX)

Word on the Decline

  • Remember it was just two months ago that Peabody’s Jim Gretch was described as “playing a blinder” and “going from “underdog to winner” in the US$3.8b acquisition of Anglo’s Queensland coal assets

  • And with Peabody shedding 63% of it’s equity value since playing such a blinder, the NYSE-listed miner is flying the ‘material adverse change’ flag to try backtrack from overpaying and potentially sending the company on a fast-track pathway into bankruptcy. Again…

  • Apparently Anglo thinks Peabody can’t get out of the deal. You can read the MAC clause for yourself if you want to make your own mind up.

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In the Weeds

  • Advice for commodities investors? Sell, sell, then keep selling (AFR)

  • Lion Selection shared a new presentation (LSX) Some interesting content on disconnects between commodity prices & equity valuations, large vs small caps

  • Strictly Boardroom: Top 30 mining quotes 2025 edition (MNN)

  • Nuclear boom sparks urgent call for investment in new uranium mines (FT)

  • While War Rages, Congo’s Neighbors Smuggle Out Its Gold and Mineral Wealth (WSJ)

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Today’s Top Tweet

Devil’s in the Detail

When companies release a scoping study, ASX’s listing rules require them to include a certain proportion of the mine plan from the Indicated JORC resource (think 70%?)

Well, the latest trend is that companies release a study with mostly low-confidence material. And when ASX tells them off, they retract the announcement the following day.

But the numbers are already out there. You can’t ‘delete’ the original release from being on the ASX…

Now, does Gold Road’s retracted study assumptions today make a lot more sense? We think this was always the plan.

Honestly, we’re just happy they’re actually negotiating on value, even if they’re walking the line on the rulebook they’re playing.

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Everything You Need to Know About Lithium Markets in 2025 (1 hr 22 min)

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