Investors Buy the West African Dip, Again

Capricorn builds cash mining 0.8g/t dirt, Lotus releases accelerated Kayelekera timeline

October 08, 2024

The Pre-Start

  • West African confirmed its mining permits standing after consultation with the government while sharing a Sept Q update, producing 48koz (Permit, Prod.) Orezone Gold similarly reassured the market that their Bomboré mining permit is valid (ORE.T)

  • Lotus shared an accelerated restart plan for Kayelekera following engineering work, with time to first U reduced to 8-10 months with restart capital of US$50m (LOT) It shared the highly anticipated NPV8 & IRR of US$301m & 66% respectively

  • Capricorn Metals produced 26koz over the Sept Q, at a head grade of 0.8g/t. $4.5m was spent at MGGP. It finished with $145m cash & bullion, building $20m (CMM)

  • Ivanhoe produced 116kt of Cu at Kamoa-Kakula while lifting guidance. Kipushi delivered 18kt of Zn as it ramps up, with guidance lowered (IVN.TO)

  • NRW was awarded the mining services contract at Evolution’s Mungari, with an estimated $360m value, running until mid-2030 (EVN)

  • Emerald produced 28koz, finishing with cash & bullion for $181m (EMR)

  • Brazilian Rare Earths shared tantalum assays from Monte Alto, adding to rare earth intercepts (BRE)

  • Wildcat shared drilling results from Leia, with a headline 84m @ 1.4% Li2O (WC8)

  • Meeka Metals shared underground metallurgy results from Turnberry, with 15km of grade control drilling in the oxide pits next up (MEK)

  • Kali Metals expanded its existing Pilbara JV with SQM to include some additional tenements as well as renegotiating some JV terms (KM1)

  • Element 25 announced it’s collaborating with Regroup and Scania on a fleet of autonomous in-pit mining trucks at E25’s Butcherbird manganese mine (E25)

  • GreenX Metals is in trading halt pending a release regarding claims against the Republic of Poland (GRX)

High Grade It

  • Iron ore rose 3% — following two sharp weekly gains — on speculation China’s top economic planner will unveil more stimulus (Bloomberg)

  • Beat-up lithium & nickel miner IGO shows some “chutzpah” (audacity) ahead of AGM season, asking for a higher director pay ceiling despite takeover disaster and declining share price (AFR)

  • Investors have been building exposure China amid growing anticipation that Beijing is on the cusp of announcing a public spending package (AFR)

  • LNG will be needed for decades to ensure adequate energy supply, even as the world shifts to cleaner sources, an importer group emphasised (Bloomberg)

  • West African Resources said it is monitoring the situation after the leader of Burkina Faso’s military junta flagged a gold mining crackdown (Australian)

  • Citi says there is a temporary window in commodity markets to make some money, with China’s stimulus blitz set to lift iron ore price to $US120 & copper to $US10,500 (AFR)

  • Thyssenkrupp is reviewing plans for the production of green steel, responding to a report that it was considering halting a €3b decarbonisation project (Reuters)

  • Big Oil urges Trump not to gut Biden’s Climate Law (WSJ)

  • Nickel extended gains as supply cuts came into focus, while other metals held steady ahead of the reopening of Chinese markets (Bloomberg)

  • FMGs plan to cease emitting carbon by 2030 could earn the company at least $50m/yr from a new federal government carbon credit scheme, though the company has previously said it wouldn’t accept these (AFR)

  • A Cameroonian minister struck a conciliatory tone in London, saying gov’t will work with miners to provide a production share that works (MiningNews)

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Rio’s tilt at Arcadium is a decades-long bet on lithium (AFR, FT)

  • Lucara has sold its 100% interest in the Clara rough diamond digital marketplace for C$3m cash and the return of C$4.6m worth of Lucara shares (LUC.T)

Word on the Decline

  • It’s been a few months since we first reported in this column that MinRes was up to something in Mauritania. And since then, we keep hearing more and more about this

  • We now believe their focus relates to the El Aouj iron ore project, owned by Glencore and SNIM

  • And while the 2015 feasibility study talked about an 11.5Mtpa operation, we actually think there are plans for it to be at least double that…

  • Where does MinRes fit into the picture though? Crushing contract? Full ops contract? We’re not sure just yet

  • Maybe MinRes Air will be doing international flights in no time

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In the Weeds

  • Kabanga, Kambalda or both is the question Dryblower asks about BHP’s nickel plans (MiningNews)

  • Three reasons why Rio Tinto’s target is a sitting duck (AFR’s Chanticleer)

  • The 149 projects for inclusion in the NZ government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill, which includes 11 mining projects (NZ Gov’t)

  • Unlike Australia, Europe clings to its hydrogen hopes (AFR)

  • New titans of Wall St: how Jane Street rode the ETF wave to ‘obscene’ riches (FT)

  • He wants to be the Lithium King. Run for President. And live to 150. (WSJ)

  • Don’t celebrate China’s stimulus just yet (Economist)

  • A few interesting takes on the Rio x Arcadium bid on Linkedin:

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Today’s Top Tweet

Devil’s in the Detail

West African Resources is up 9% in early trade. “Buying the coup” works every time… (until it doesn’t)

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Rio, This is What You’ve Gotta Pay for Arcadium (1hr 4min)

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