IGO Eyes M&A, New Hope Dishes Out Divvie

Winsome releases Adina numbers + M&A rumours swirl around MinRes

The Pre-Start

  • New Hope shared its full-year results, which showed 9.1Mt of saleable coal (up 26%) for underlying EBITDA of $860m. It declared a 22c franked dividend (NHC)

  • Santos has executed a Sale & Purchase Deed for the BUJV, transferring a 16% interest to Timor Gap (STO)

  • Winsome released a scoping study for Adina, forecasting 280ktpa of SC5.5% for 21 years, with an NPV8 of US$740m & 43% IRR, using a US$1,375/t price for SC5.5. Capex pinned at US$260m, while AISC stood at US$693/t (WR1)

  • WA1 & Tjamu Tjamu (Aboriginal Corp) RNTBC signed a negotiation protocol to work toward development of an access road & other infrastructure (WA1)

  • Antipa updated the MRE for Minyari, adding 570koz, to total 48Mt @ 1.51g/t Au, with 0.18% Cu, with silver & cobalt credits (AZY)

  • Chalice’s Gonneville has been approved as a strategic project by the WA government, supporting approvals & infrastructure requirements (CHN)

  • Aurelia announced the first stopes have been fired at Federation, with bogging commencing shortly (AMI)

  • Macmahon announced that Decmil had been award a $111m contract at the Borumba Dam project (MAH)

  • Ivanhoe Electric remains on track to deliver its PFS on Santa Cruz copper project located in Arizona in Q2 2025 (IE.TO)

  • Canadian-listed SilverCorp filed an updated NI43-101 for the GC Mine, underpinned by reserves of 5Mt @ 81g/t Ag, 1.2% Pb & 2.84% Zn (SVM.TO)

  • Mt Gibson Iron kicked off their share buyback (MGX)

  • Toubani announced Mike Nelson joined the board, while Tim Kestell stepped down. DFS on scheulde for October release (TRE)

High Grade It

  • AI growth will exacerbate a looming shortage of copper, BHP warned (FT)

  • Wall St predictions grow for aggressive half-point Fed rate cut (FT) half-point cut odds at 64%

  • Oil prices inch up on Fed rate cut outlook (Reuters)

  • The best week in over a year for Australia’s mining shares is at risk of reversing as concerns deepen over China’s growth trajectory (Bloomberg)

  • Gas-fired power would end in 5 years under a Greens push, undermining Labor’s plan to accelerate the renewables rollout without blackouts (Australian)

  • The Fed's rate cut decision & Aussie jobs data headline a crucial week in macro (CB)

  • PM Anthony Albanese shut down the prospect of adding a “climate trigger” to pass Labor’s Nature Positive laws, overruling Tanya Plibersek (West)

  • “Stars are aligning” for a breakout rally in precious metals as investors prepare for rate cuts (AFR)

  • ERA’s legal challenge to the lease cessation at Jabiluka has one more opponent after a judge allowed the area’s traditional owners to participate (West)

  • The High Court ended Julian Wright’s bid for bigger share of iron ore fortune that left his siblings billionaires (West)

  • Anglo American risks getting caught in four strategic traps it set for BHP, as it tries to progress its transformation (Australian)

  • Goldman Sachs cuts Q4 iron ore price forecast by $15/t to $85/t on a supply glut (Mining.com)

  • Sweden’s government has ruled out a financial rescue of Northvolt as the country’s green battery start-up fights for survival (FT)

MMTS Ad

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • MinRes cites large gas resource amid talks on $500m sale (CB, AFR) MST’s Saul Kavonic points to Mitsui, Beach Energy, Hancock as potential bidders

  • IGO is understood to be weighing the acquisition of Rio Tinto’s Winu in WA as it turns its attention to non-lithium M&A (Australian)

  • Paladin has hit a roadblock in its proposed acquisition of Fission Uranium after CGN Mining, an 11.3% FCU shareholder, opposed the deal (PDN, Mining.com)

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • Vizla Silver is raising C$65 million in a bought deal to advance their Panuco silver-gold project in Mexico (VZLA.V)

  • Following last week’s resource upgrade, Andean Silver is raising capital (ASL)

  • Polymetals secured a US$20m pre-payment facility with trader Ocean Partners UK at SOFR + 6% (POL)

Word on the Decline

  • Yesterday’s strum-up in The Australian about BHP’s wisdom walking from Anglo as it has kicked a few own-goals since smells a bit funny to us. “One thing to be sure, $75bn won’t be back on the table again.

  • If Anglo’s business is both simpler and cheaper in due course, BHP will be back. But they’ll probably move at a glacial pace and be playing catch-up to Glencore when that time comes

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In the Weeds

  • Emmanuel Datt dives into the most important M&A deal of the year: Anglo Coal (Livewire)

  • U Need to Focus on Term (Praetorian Capital) Referenced in yesterday’s show

  • Remember Gina Rinehart’s pitch for “special economic zones” in Australia’s north? It seems the political agenda is back based on Tony Boyd’s sympathetic op-ed in the AFR

  • Lucara unearths 1,094-carat diamond (Bloomberg)

  • Investors have forgotten the lessons of the dotcom crash (AFR)

  • To Catch Up in EVs, Detroit Needs to Invite China In (Bloomberg)

  • Let’s improve the fossil fuels debate (Australian)

  • Brazil wants to be a climate champion and an oil giant. Can it be both? (FT)

  • Rick Rule reckons 3/4 of juniors are “absolutely valueless” (Kitco)

  • China’s grip on rare earths undercuts projects from US to Japan (Bloomberg)

China rare earth supply

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Today’s Top Tweet

Devil’s in the Detail

When we get grumpy at the lack of detail typically provided with the announcement of finance facilities, the pushback we hear is “the terms are confidential”

Well the terms set out in Polymetals prepayment yesterday are a great example of the level of disclosure we think appropriate to still provide the market.

Where does the security rank? What is the term of the facility / offtake? What commitment/arrangement fees are involved? What margin is being paid? These are pretty simple things.

Polymetals Facility

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Is $85/lb the New Uranium Floor? (44 min)

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