Gold Gains Strength as Markets Correct

Rio Tinto in DRC discussions, Tonkin unfazed by Gold Road activity

March 31, 2025

The Pre-Start

  • Gold Road published its 2024 annual report, confirming free cash flow of $92m (down from $140m) with a 1.5c dividend being distributed today (GOR)

  • Orion released a DFS on the Prieska Cu-Zn mine with A$607m project capital and post-tax NPV8 of A$568m (ORN)

  • A March update from Meeka showed the larger 750kW ball mill installed while open pit production was accelerated, with first ore expected in April (MEK)

  • Kingsgate confirmed all employees were safe & that operations were not impacted by the severe earthquakes that hit the region (KCN)

  • Hot Chili released a PFS for Huasco Water, a multi-user water business with a stage 1 NPV8 of US$122m & 19% IRR (US$151m capex) (HCH)

  • Northern Minerals confirmed that the 10.4% stake in itself that the Australian gov’t required certain shareholder divest has now been completed (NTU)

  • Grange Resources confirmed its updated R&R statement was broadly in line with mining depletion, with reserves of 100Mt declining 8% (GRR)

  • Rox shared a round of assays from Youanmi drilling, with hits from Prospect including 5.7m @ 10.9g/t from 285m (RXL)

  • Toubani announced an agreement with the Malian state, with Kobada to be developed under the 2023 mining code (TRE)

  • Strickland updated the resource for the Horse Well gold camp, now containing 4.7Mt @ 1.94g/t for 292koz (STK)

  • Euro Manganese announced that directors approved a 5-to-1 share consolidation commencing on April 3 (EMN)

  • Drilling from Medallion’s Kundip returned results including 6.5m @ 20.2g/t Au & 5% Cu from 139m (MM8)

  • Auric reported its full 2024 numbers, with the company netting a profit of $4m (AWJ)

  • Capital DI increased its stake in Marvel Gold to ~17% (MVL)

High Grade It

  • Northern Star’s Stuart Tonkin said he’s unsurprised and unfazed by Gold Road’s De Grey silence (MNN)

  • A US special envoy is scheduled to arrive in the DRC for talks crucial to AVZ Mineral’s hope of regaining control of Manono (Australian)

  • Details of a multimillion-dollar annual payment made by Rio to the Indigenous owners of Juukan Gorge will remain a secret after regulators accepted an argument that transparency would put a price on cultural heritage (AFR)

  • Australia’s commodity exports are expected to fall almost 7% this year, piling pressure on the gov’t to step up efforts to cushion the impact on miners (AFR)

  • Tin prices hit two-week highs as speculators bet that an earthquake that rocked major producer Myanmar could delay a restart of production (Reuters)

  • Chile's Codelco has been redirecting more of its spot sales to the US as proposed tariffs draw near (Reuters)

  • The world’s largest commodity traders are still making historically elevated profits, even as less-volatile markets mean earnings have retreated (Bloomberg)

  • Gold soared to a new record, recently trading at US$3,089/oz as tariffs loom (NM)

  • Australia should use uranium as a bargaining chip in trade talks with the US aimed at lessening the effect of tariffs, said the Minerals Council (Australian)

  • Lundin Mining cuts its dividend to focus on buybacks, reducing its quarterly dividend from 9c to 2.75c (MNN)

  • Rio Tinto has redrawn its plans for the Winu copper-gold mine after the shock discovery of a rare bird (Australian)

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Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Rio has held talks with the DRC about developing one of the world’s largest hard rock lithium deposits, possibly in partnership with KoBold if dispute between AVZ, Zijin & DRC gets resolved (Bloomberg)

  • Astral issued a compulsory acquisition notice for Maximus (MXR)

  • Alvo Minerals signed a LoI with Pan American Silver to buy the Lavra Velha gold-copper project (ALV)

  • Fenix released a supplementary bidders statement in relation to its bid for CZR (FEX)

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • To finance its proposed project acqusition, Alvo will undertake a $3.5m entitlement offer (ALV)

  • Horseshoe is receiving a loan facility up to $4 million from shareholder Obsidian, paying 12% pa and secured over the Horseshoe Lights ML… (HOR)

Word on the Decline

  • We hear rumours of a few key issues regarding the Ravenswood Gold sale process currently underway. The existing hedgebook is particularly onerous, especially as gold prices climb higher. We have also heard some concerns about the tailings facilities of the project. If true, it would be reminiscent of the Telfer sale process where TSF issues arose mid process.

  • Neither the hedgebook nor TSF concerns are insurmountable. It all comes down to value adjustments at the end of the day.

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In the Weeds

  • Australian and Canadian politicians gear up to woo miners (MNN)

  • The Lithium “Art of War” (Joe Lowry LinkedIn)

  • Copper Is 2025’s Hottest Commodity (WSJ)

  • BHP’s new chairman Ross McEwan meets investors, reads up on history (AFR)

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Today’s Top Tweet

Devil’s in the Detail

With Trafigura putting its hands out for a government bailout of their unprofitable Australian smelters (Port Pirie lead smelter and Hobart zinc smelter), we wonder what the financial health looks like for Glencore’s Mt Isa copper smelter. Margins for smelting infrastructure have clearly remained very low and are unlikely to moderate as more smelting capacity is built out, mandated by value-add policies of governments globally.

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