Gold and Copper Stocks Smashed on Trump Victory

IGO protest vote, Bouganville agreement and Spartan disappoints

November 07, 2024

The Pre-Start

  • Spartan says a new prospect 110m south and along-strike of Pepper hit 23.6m @ 2.4g/t gold from 503.5m, incl. 3.0m @ 11.4g/t gold (SPR) the share price is down 15% on open… and we think that’s got to do with the grade and thickness of the down-dip holes at Pepper (plus gold market overnight generally)

  • Paladin copped an 8-question “please explain” from ASX asking the uranium producer to reconcile statements in its Annual Report with revelations in its recently published quarterly (PDN)

  • BHP confirms that the Samarco settlement agreement has been ratified by the Supreme Court of Brazil (BHP)

  • SSR Mining produced 97koz AuEq gold in the quarter while operations at Çöpler remained suspended. Free cash flow was negative $34m (SSR)

  • Ero Copper’s quarterly revenue was $125m, with Tucumã producing its first saleable copper concentrate in the period (ERO.T)

  • Black Cat has awarded MACA the engineering study to expand the fully approved Kal East processing facility design from 800kpta up to 1.2-1.5Mtpa (BC8)

  • Bougainville Copper has entered into a Land Access and Compensation Agreement with landowners with respect to EL for the Panguna project (BOC)

  • IGO’s AGM saw relatively large protest votes against the re-election of three directors and the rem report (IGO) based on proxy vs poll we are deducing Mark Creasy was a big part of the votes against. Ultimately all resolutions carried

  • B2 Gold produced 180.5koz gold in the quarter with first pour from Goose on schedule for Q2CY25 and full year guidance signalled to be ~800koz (BTO.T)

  • Cooper Energy increased FY25 guidance to 65-72 Tje/day driven by improved performance at its Orbost gas processing plant (COE)

  • Beacon Minerals released its 2024 Resources & Reserves statement for its gold projects (BCN)

High Grade It

  • Albemarle loses more than US$1b in the depressed lithium market and sees lithium prices staying “lower for longer” (Reuters, ALB)

  • Metals sell-off after Trump win while oil recoups some losses (Reuters)

  • British oil & gas giant BP shops 51% stake in Aussie renewables portfolio (AFR)

  • Australia needs to “step up” and take a leadership role in supplying & refining the critical minerals the world needs to transition to green energy (West)

  • Gold hastens retreat, falling 2.8%, as the US dollar rallies on Trump victory (Reuters)

  • The Future Fund said it has asked for more info on the conduct of MinRes MD Chris Ellison in light of the recent governance issues (AFR)

  • China’s BYD overtakes Tesla revenue for the first time (BBC)

  • Twiggy responds to Iron Bridge dust fears and shrugs off Gina Rinehart gas threat (West)

  • The UK has commissioned a review into Australia’s hydrogen market (BN)

  • Shares in Trilogy Metals more than doubled as investors bet Trump’s win would clear the way for Trilogy and partner S32 to develop Ambler (AFR)

  • CMOC, the world’s No. 1 cobalt miner, is sounding the alarm over the shrinking role of the metal in EV batteries, saying its era is over (Bloomberg)

  • IGO narrowly avoids “first strike” as shareholders vent (West)

  • Andrew Forrest believes a Trump presidency won’t spark iron ore crash or dash FMG’s green energy hopes (West)

  • Brazil lifts coal imports to record as hydro hit lingers (Reuters)

  • A UK gov’t report has found local processing and manufacturing could make Africa a battery minerals hub (MiningNews)

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Canada approves Pan American’s sale of Peru gold mine to Zijin (Mining.com) $245m cash plus 1.5% NSR and $50m contingent

  • IsoEnergy has mailed its Information Circular for shareholders to approve its acquisition of Anfield (ISO.T)

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • No one is rattling the tin! Too much market uncertainty to plan a raise the day after an election result we guess…

In the Weeds

  • Stanley Druckenmiller’s latest interview, speaking specifically about his concerns about inflation if ‘animal spirits’ return (YouTube)

  • The complicity of Chris Ellison’s financiers (AFR)

  • MinRes directors slammed over big bonuses to Ellison (AFR)

  • Nuclear Energy’s AI Boom Blew a Fuse—Here’s What Could Happen Next (WSJ)

  • Silver usage today: Sprott Radio (Sprott podcasts)

  • Mobile Batteries, the ultimate flexibility (Redefining Energy)

  • MLG’s AGM presentation makes for an interesting skim read if interested in the listed mining services business (MLG)

  • Pete Ker writes about the esoteric Trump Trade that went up 108% overnight in the mining sector (AFR) - it was probably off your radar but flagged by the mintwit great last week (Twitter)

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Today’s Top Tweet

Devil’s in the Detail

So in the last 24 hours, both the world’s largest lithium producer (Albemarle) and the world’s largest cobalt producer (CMOC) have put out really gloomy statements about the outlook of their respective commodities.

We predict that EV batteries will never return to the era that relies on cobalt. Cobalt is far less important than imagined… the proportion of batteries containing the metal may eventually drop to less than a tenth”

Zhou Xing, a spokesman for CMOC via email to Bloomberg

We do think the price is going to be lower for longer… we're positioning the company to compete at that level.

Ken Masters, CEO of Albemarle

Take that in for a moment…

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