Gina bought $40 million more Lynas stock yesterday...

AlphaHPA and Renascor to get $585 million Government funding

G’day GC #

The Pre-Start

  • Rio Tinto released first-quarter production results, with guidance remaining unchanged across all commodities. Iron ore production was down 5% quarter-on-quarter, while copper was up 7% (RIO)

Rio Tinto first quarter production

Rio Tinto's first quarter production

  • $7.7 billion Evolution showed $25 million of cash build for the quarter and the company maintains guidance of ~749koz for FY24 (EVN)

  • Santana Minerals RAS 10-year Scoping Study highlighted pre-production capital of NZ$256m, with an NPV10 of $486m & an IRR of 49% (SMI) While we’re not fans of ‘payback from the start of production’, we note a 10% discount rate is closer to what most miners should use

  • Deep Yellow finished the quarter with $141m, with a further $30m received in April (SPP) and the $80m placement Tranch 2 expecting approval at end of the month (DYL)

  • West African released M1 South drill results from recent Sanbrado infill drilling; high-grade hits include 24m @ 55.8g/t (WAF)

High Grade It

  • AlphaHPA and Renascor have been announced by the Commonwealth government to receive $585 million loans for their respective projects (AFR)

  • Mining industry lobbying has won out against national environmental regulation reform, which has now stalled (AFR)

  • Output from the world’s number two iron ore producer, Vale, topped estimates with 70.8mt of first-quarter production (Bloomberg)

  • Billionaire Gina Rinehart has amassed a 5.82% position in Lynas Rare Earths via her private company Hancock Prospecting (Bloomberg)

  • Rio Tinto said it expects to see strong iron ore demand from China as steel exports surged, while expecting internal stimulus to continue (The Australian)

  • BHP’s flagship iron ore business will consume seven times more power by 2040 because of fleet electrification, resulting in gas-fired power station expansion being required until 2053 (AFR)

  • Jeremy Weir, Trafigura CEO, has said miners need copper over $10k/t, possibly as high as $12k/t, to fill a potential supply gap (Bloomberg)

  • The Biden administration is set to reject the construction of an access road to the Ambler mining district in Northern Alaska (Reuters)

  • A senior Rio exec has stated that the company aims to keep all copper from its Resolution mine inside the US, should it be approved (Reuters)

  • Europe will restart magnesium mining for the first time in more than a decade, as the EU attempts to reduce reliance on China (FT)

  • Glencore-backed nickel miner Horizonte Minerals has failed to secure financing and is now looking to sell its Brazilian nickel mine (FT)

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Sev.en’s acquisition of a stake in Coronado from EMG is still yet to complete six months after the announcement (The Australian)

  • Stanmore’s sale of the southern tenements of Ward’s Well to Peabody for US$136 million has completed (SMR)

  • Macmahon shareholders are uneasy with the $127 million Decmil acquisition (The Australian)

  • Strickland has emerged with their acquisition of the Rogonza project in Serbia for $37 million in shares (STK)

    Shanac Mineral Resource

    Headline 5.4Moz AuEq - but there’s five metals contributing with an assumed 80% recovery on all in the Resource…

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • Perenti is proposing to issue US$350 million new debt via the US bond market in a refinancing of their existing debt securities (PRN)

  • Brazillian PE group, Ore Investments Ltda, has cornerstoned a $4.2 million placement in Alvo Minerals at a 25% premium to last (ALV)

  • Windlab, which was taken private by Squadron Energy & Federation AM in 2020, has kicked off meetings, seeking nearly $1b in debt for its Queensland wind farm (AFR)

Word on the Decline

  • Gina emerged as a substantial shareholder of Lynas last night, buying $40 million of stock yesterday alone

  • The odds of a Lynas merger with MP Materials just shortened with Rinehart happy to be above the disclosable threshold in both companies

  • Imagine a consolidated rare earth producer ex-China, with Gina a sizable shareholder

In the Weeds

  • Chairman Powell of the US Fed has cautioned that persistently elevated inflation is likely to delay any interest rate cuts until later this year (AFR)

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Today’s Top Tweet

Devil’s in the Detail

Should we be particularly surprised to see Macmahon buying Decmil - an ostensibly crappier business for a higher multiple than the former trades itself? Well yes, unless poorly aligned incentives were at play in M&A rationale once again….

We imagine buying Decmil makes FY24 and FY25 business mix objectives easier to meet

Perhaps we would start a remuneration design business for ASX companies.

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