All Eyes on Liontown as Production Looms

Boss Energy bid for NT-rejected Jabiluka revealed

The Pre-Start

  • Liontown said KV is 95% complete, with 1,596m in development done. Water commissioning commenced through the float circuit while the power station was commissioned. 216kt of clean ore stockpiled (LTR) and $123m cash with convertible landing after quarter end

  • ERA has seen the NT government reject its application for the renewal of the Jabiluka Mineral Lease (ERA)

  • Ramelius delivered 293koz at $1,583/oz, spending $50m in capex of FY24. Cash & gold of $447m with a $175m revolver in place (RMS) FY25 guidance was provided, with midpoints of 285koz at $1,600/oz (RMS)

  • Stanmore did 4.9Mt ROM production, saleable production fo 3.4Mt with 3.5Mt total sales. Cash closed at US$404m, net cash US$192m (SMR)

  • Resolute poured 91koz at US$1,402/oz for the Q, spending $20m on capex. It finished with net cash of US$97m (RSG)

  • Calidus’ Administrators are postponing the second creditor meeting up to 6 months to allow time to undertake a sale or recap (CAI)

  • Hillgrove reached commercial production, producing 2,584t copper at their Kanmantoo mine (HGO). Cash remained flat at $7.4m, with $4.4m in unsold con and $3.5m in receivables… and payables?

  • Old Peak is no longer a substantial shareholder of Metals X (MLX)

  • Tanzania will pay the Indiana Resources US$90 million settlement staged over three payments by March 2025 (IDA) we reckon it’s important for shareholders to get comfortable with the Director scuttlebutt earlier in the year before assuming they will benefit from the payout…

  • Delta Lithium closed the quarter with $87m cash after spending $12 million in the quarter (DLI)

  • Vulcan Energy closed with €61m (VUL)

  • Deep Yellow closed with $257m as it looks to secure debt financing (DYL)

High Grade It

  • The NT rejected ERA’s request to extend a lease over the undeveloped Jabiluka, dashing some investors production hopes (AFR)

  • A lot of politics’: Investor Willy Packer dismayed as ERA loses bid to revive uranium mining in the Northern Territory (West)

  • MinRes announced $600m in pre-sold iron ore in its quarterly results, which got some analysts worked up (AFR)

  • Indonesia is trying to reduce Chinese investment in new nickel mining & processing projects to help it qualify for tax breaks in the US (FT)

  • Anglo American faces headwinds as it restructures, writing down Woodsmith by US$1.6B and ceasing production from Grovenor after the fire (Bloomberg) nice call by our intern, Hobbsy, on Woodsmith!

  • Chinese rare earths company Shenghe plans to set up an outpost in Australia to advance its local interests (AFR)

  • Codelco posted a decline in first-half copper production, with output 8.4% lower than the first six months of last year (Bloomberg)

Global leaders in copper production

Global leaders in copper production

  • Activist investor, Bluebell Capital, has taken issue with BP’s “wasteful” spending on wind and solar (Bloomberg) the same activist wanted Glencore to split out its coal business in 2021...

  • Vale, the world’s 2nd biggest iron ore supplier, posted Q2 results that slightly trailed estimates after facing higher expenses (Bloomberg)

  • Tianqi appealed a ruling by Chilean regulator CMF that shareholder approval isn’t needed to advance the SQM-Codelco tie-up (Reuters)

Auralia Ad

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Boss Energy made a $550m bid for uranium project Jabiluka prior to Prime Minister Albanese’s veto (AFR)

  • Bloomberg has gotten the industry talking about M&A at the big end of town over the weekend once again. It says Teck is a target for BHP, Rio and Freeport but a merger with either Anglo American or Vale’s base metals business could also be on the cards (Bloomberg)

  • M&A arbitrage funds are sitting on the sidelines of the ‘Fumble in the Jungle’ aka Battle for Sierra Rutile (AFR)

  • Zijin’s 9.9% investment in Montage for C$57.3m this month is a potential test case for dealmaking within the bounds of ‘acceptable’ for Canadian listed miners (Bloomberg)

  • Glencore is rumoured to be the front-runner for Anglo American’s Queensland coal assets (Australian)

  • Baosteel doubles its investment in Saudi steel plate venture to $1b (Bloomberg)

  • Macquarie’s has reversed its ban on M&A advisory for coal deals (AFR) we reckon they should flick the ‘Critical Minerals & Energy’ team name too

  • Provident has reached 88.9% of Sihayo as part of its takeover offer, now declared unconditional (SIH)

  • S32 advised that all conditions precedent to the sale of Illawarra met coal to GEAR/M Resources have been satisfied (S32)

  • Sierra Rutile reported the termination of the bid implementation agreement with Gemcorp, who have demanded a break fee (SRX)

  • Deterra dropped a rare investor presentation today suggesting their sweet spot for royalty acquisitions is A$100-300m (DRR)

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • Meteoric raised $27.5m by way of a placement and launched a $5m SPP (MEI) Stock was off +8% last Friday…

  • Warreidar is raising $4m to fund exploration at its WA and Nevada gold assets (INSERT LINK)

Word on the Decline

  • Listening to Eramet’s commentary on the manganese market in their H1 earnings call reminded us of some manganese M&A murmurs we picked up at a pub about a month ago

  • Now, please discount this because it was a) at a pub and b) it’s been over a month and nothing has happened (“time kills deals” as my first boss says)

  • But the word was that Jupiter had a deal in their sight. We were 6 pints in so the memory is blurry but I thought it had to do with consolidating the JV of Tshipi where JMS has a 49.9% interest

  • Picking up OM Holdings’ 26% stake might be doable given Tshipi’s ore doesn’t even go to their Malaysian smelter…

  • And as Koala has pointed out too, acquiring Anglo’s manganese assets may also make plenty of sense for Jupiter at some stage

  • Ding ding ding on this name for some of the MoM team (so if anything comes to pass, we sure hope it’s accretive…)

Do you have some Word on the Decline? Reply to this email or shoot a message to [email protected] directly. We will always take your privacy seriously.

In the Weeds

  • Listened to this podcast series about how De Beers won, defended, and ultimately surrendered its hold over the diamond mining industry. It’s an eight-part podcast series from Business Wars (Spotify, Apple)

  • This Aaron Witt video gives you the low down on the Olive Downs complex in Queensland

  • If you want to learn more about MinRes’ transhipping strategy, watch this video

  • Old King Coal Remains Omnipotent and Omnipresent - opinion piece from Bloomberg’s Javier Blas (Bloomberg)

  • A great episode on the importance of energy independence with Arjun Murti (Spotify, Apple)

  • Vaclav Smil and the Value of Doubt (New Yorker) A long-form article on one of the academic giants of energy

  • Why is Xi Jinping building secret commodity stockpiles? (Economist)

  • Trav reckons Trump’s emphatic endorsement of Bitcoin is a pretty big deal… Watch yesterday’s address at the conference Bitcoin 2024 here

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Devil’s in the Detail

Are we the only ones who find it absurd that an industry super fund is throwing over 1% of its funds towards the on-market takeover of a historically underwhelming drill & blast mining services company?

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Bidders Statement for AFS’ acquisition of DDB

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