All Eyes on BHP Following Anglo's Rejection

Liontown end March with $358m, making steps towards debt draw down

G’day GC #

The Pre-Start

  • Anglo American has rejected BHP’s proposal, deeming it highly unattractive, uncertain and complex (AAL)

  • Liontown has reported that Kathleen Valley is 85% constructed, & confirmed it’s on budget and on schedule for mid-2024. Cash closed at $358m (LTR)

  • Perenti secured US$350m from a bond issuance. Proceeds will be used to pay down existing debt facilities, partially. The notes pay 7.5% and are due in 5 years (PRN)

  • Boss Energy ended the quarter with $100 million cash and produced its first drum of uranium after the quarter ended (BOE). They also hold uranium inventory of 1.25mlb, which is $169m at current spot prices.

  • Hillgrove Resources continued ramp-up at Kanmantoo with 719t copper produced with grade and recoveries increasing (HGO). $7.4m left in the kitty, hence the monthly updates.

  • PRM Services bid for Sierra Rutile has been withdrawn, as have the proposed director changes. 2 new players emerged in the takeover battle, with Leonoil taking 5.4% ownership, while Samuel Terry sold their 19.9% stake to Gemcorp (SRX)

  • Metro Mining’s offshore floating terminal has commenced cargo operations, as the company aims to lift export capacity to 7mwmt (MMI)

High Grade It

  • Anglo American rejected BHP’s proposal within 24 hours of details emerging, setting the stage for an improved bid (The Australian)

  • Sources say BHP is considering an improved proposal for Anglo (Reuters)

  • Anglo American shareholders will hear from the board at Tuesday’s AGM, and are expected to appeal to their chair to extract a better price from suitor BHP (AFR)

BHP + Anglo asset combination

What a combination of Anglo and BHP assets looks like

  • Famed activist investor Elliott has built a US$1b stake, or 2.5% of the company, in Anglo American via derivatives, putting it among the top 10 shareholders. Shares jumped 6.3% on the news (Bloomberg)

  • Lithium miners are betting on a greener second act for Australian mining, following decades of booming iron ore sales (Mining.com)

  • Olive Downs, perhaps Australia’s last new open-cut met coal mine, has been opened by privately held Pembroke. The asset was bought from Peabody in 2016 & will initially produce 6mtpa (The Australian)

  • BHP’s bid for Anglo has cast clouds over the US$9b Woodsmith fertiliser project in England (Bloomberg)

  • Investors remain confident Anglo will be bought or broken up, with one top-10 shareholder stating “I cannot see Anglo existing as an independent company by year-end” (FT)

  • Codelco is battling to emerge from a years-long slump, with Q1CY24 production down 10% from a year prior, at 295kt (Bloomberg)

Codelco actual and forecasted copper output

Codelco actual and forecasted copper output

  • Rehabilitation for Alcoa’s South West mines and manufacturing plants have lifted more than $200m to $1.1b (The West) 

  • The copper price hit US$10,000/t for the first time in 2 years following BHP’s bid sparking a new wave of interest (AFR)

  • Saudi Arabia is reportedly set on securing lithium from overseas to produce EV batteries, whilst exploring exploration nationally (Reuters)

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • The independent expert has deemed the takeover by silica sand company Diatreme of Metallica “not fair and not reasonable” (The Australian)

  • After failing to land OreCorp, Silvercorp announced an all-stock deal valued at C$200m for Adventus Mining and its 75% interest in the El Domo copper-gold project in Ecuador (Mining.com)

  • Silver Lake has lodged the scheme booklet for their merger with Red 5 with ASIC (SLR)

  • Zhaojin now control voting rights over 38.6% of Tietto’s stock (TIE)

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • Image Resources signed an at-the-money facility totalling $12.5m of stand-by equity, available until early 2029 (IMA)

  • Geopacific Resources raised $8m for its Woodlark Gold project in PNG (GPR)

  • Ioneer is in a trading halt, pending a capital raising (INR)

Word on the Decline

  • To the best of our knowledge, this one important detail regarding the BHP - Anglo news is yet to be reported. We have it on good word that the jewel in the portfolio, Collahuasi, has a cost basis of near zero. And Chile has capital gains tax. That means BHP (and any potential interloper such as Rio or Glencore) cannot bid for the copper assets, as the tax is too prohibitive. The only way to get the crown jewel is to merge with Anglo.

In the Weeds

  • There’s potential, should BHP get its hands on Anglo, that the Big Australian will be in a far stronger negotiating position with regards to Australian regulation on nuclear (for industry) and industrial relations, argues Robert Gottliebsen (The Australian)

  • BHP’s deal for Anglo has been years in the making. Whether it goes the of previous deals such as their bids for Rio Tinto or Potash Corp, time will tell (Bloomberg) - Whilst a good read, this one reeks of BHP’s media machine

  • New battery recycling advancements are shrinking EVs environmental footprint. Assuming no recycled materials, it takes a new EV in the US 41,000km to break even on emissions. New recycling plants have halved this. (Bloomberg) Obviously, your source of electricity is vital

EV, EV with recycled materials & ICE comparison

EV, EV with recycled materials & ICE comparison

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Devil’s in the Detail

Introducing the Moosepasture Multiple to the Money Miners thanks to the wise guys working on the Silver Lake scheme booklet. The mighty Independent Technical Expert has put some arithmetic around “exploration upside” and we think this is the least useful valuation methodology we have ever seen.

Comparable transactions, dollar per square kilometre. Wrap your head around that one.

If your dataset returns THAT distribution of summary statistics and you still think this metric is useful, you need to retire from science.

Disclaimer

All information in this newsletter is for education and entertainment purposes only and is of general nature only. The hosts of Money of Mine are not financial professionals. Money of Mine are not aware of your personal financial circumstances. Before making any investment decision, you should consult a licensed financial, legal or tax professional, along with considering any relevant Product Disclosure Statement. Money of Mine does not operate under an Australian financial services licence and relies on the exemption available under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) in respect of any information or advice given. Money of Mine strives to ensure the accuracy and currency of the information contained in this newsletter but we do not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, reliable or up to date. Any views expressed by the hosts of Money of Mine are their opinion only and may contain forward looking statements that may not eventuate. Money of Mine will not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of information in this newsletter.

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