Commodities Lag while Markets Soar on Tariff Pause

Gold bounced back strongly, adding 3% overnight, while ASX futures indicate a big rebound

April 10, 2025

The Pre-Start

  • In a shared presentation, Boss stated Honeymoon March Q output totalled 296klb, while it sold 268klb @ US$84/lb, leaving it on track to meet guidance (BOE)

  • Macmahon received a 3-year extension at Byerwen coking coal mine in Queensland, adding ~$900m to MAH’s secured orderbook (MAH)

  • Patriot claimed a cesium discovery at CV13, over a 600×400m area ranging from 1-2 to >10m thick. Grades varied, with 4 assays returning >20% Cs2O (PMT)

  • Aris Mining reported Q1 gold production of 55koz, up 8% year on year, with no costs provided (ARIS.TSX)

  • Wildcat closed March with $60m in the bank (WC8)

  • Triple Flag saw record revenue of US$82m from sales of 29koz of GEOs (TFPM.TSX)

  • Osisko Royalties Q1 saq 19koz of GEOs, leading to revenue to US$55m (OR.TSX)

  • The convening period for the second meeting of creditors for Australian Jervois Global companies (administrators appointed) has been extended (JRV)

  • Heliostar’s drilling at La Colorada, Mexico, returned hits including 8.85m @ 25g/t Au & 768g/t Ag. Technical report due mid-year (HSTR.TSXV) Up 20%

  • Brightstar shared the final assays from its RC drilling program at Vanguard, with further drilling underway at Menzies & Cork Tree (BTR)

  • Regal increased their stake in Alpha HPA to ~10.1% (A4N)

  • Lion Selection increased their stake in Saturn Metals to ~18.9% (STN)

  • Schroder emerged as a ~5.1% shareholder of St Barbara (SBM)

  • Presentations were shared by Chalice, Patriot, Firefly, Minerals 260, Astral & Great Boulder 

High Grade It

  • U.S. stocks rocketed higher after Trump announced that he had authorized a 90-day pause on certain tariffs to most countries, while hitting China harder. The S&P 500 added 9.5% while the Nasdaq added 12% (WSJ)

  • Investors have aggressively dumped long-term US government bonds in a historic loss of faith in the financial market’s most coveted safe haven (AFR)

  • A full-blown trade war looms as Trump doubles down and China digs in (MNN)

  • China announced it was raising tariffs on US goods from 34% to 84% in direct response to President Trump’s latest round of punitive duties (AFR)

  • The trade war threatens to slow US grid battery demand, which saw deployments surge 33% last year, as ~70% of batteries are Chinese imports (Bloomberg)

  • Northern Star has been fined $750k after a worker was seriously injured at its Carosue Dam gold mine (West)

  • Trump has ambitions to compete on coal after signing orders designating the fossil fuel as a mineral & vowing to reinvigorate the industry (AFR)

  • Takeover target Gold Road has been forced to retract details about the underground potential at Gruyere mine after a complaint was made (Australian)

  • PM Mark Carney pledged to make Canada the world’s “leading energy superpower” through a plan that includes establishing a single office that would decide on major projects within 2 years (Bloomberg)

  • Fears over a winter gas crunch in the next few years have sparked the Victorian gov’t into a plea to extend a gas storage deal (Australian)

  • State revenue from gold mining companies in Mali jumped by 53% to US$1.4bn, helped by an increase in tax collection and dividend payments (Reuters)

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Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Trump ordered a review of the proposed US Steel acquisition by Nippon Steel, CFIUS to have a conclusion within 45 days (MNN)

  • Spartan consolidated its ownership of exploration tenure at Dalgaranga by acquiring an outstanding 20% interest in adjacent tenements for $2.5m (SPR)

  • American West Metals and Ocean Partners have entered into a partnership and funding agreement for the development of the Storm copper project (AW1)

  • Predictive maintenance software company Dingo, which largely services the mining sector, is being shopped around by bankers (AFR)

  • Encore Energy closed the sale of its New Mexico assets to Verdera Energy (EU.TSXV)

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • According to Street Talk, Galan Lithium considers capital raising after knocking back a recent bid for its Argentinian lithium assets (AFR)

  • Barrick plans to secure more than US$2bn in financing for its Reko Diq Cu-Au project in Pakistan, with term sheets expected by the third quarter (NM)

  • NexGold closed a C$10m bought deal (NEXG.TSXV)

Word on the Decline

  • Here’s a theme no one seems to be talking about yet: capital is fleeing Indonesia under the country’s newly elected administration

  • Ethnic Chinese Indonesians make up a small minority of the population, yet are estimated to control 60-70% of the country’s private corporate wealth. Meanwhile, Muslim Indonesians make up approximately 87% of the population and very little capital

  • The new President, Prabowo Subianto's initiatives have been strategically aimed at resonating with Indonesia's Muslim majority. And wealth redistribution is a big feature of that

  • Now does Indonesia’s latest royalty hike plan make more sense? And is it surprising to see Indonesian bidders in the final stage of the Ravenswood sale process?

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