Commodities Experience Worst Run in 15 Years

Miners brace for tariff inflicted pain with few metals spared the pinch

April 07, 2025

The Pre-Start

  • Capricorn produced 30.6koz, putting it on solid grounds to achieve ounce & coswt guidance. KGP cash & gold build was $58m, before $16m in capex at Mt Gibson, leaving $404m (CMM)

  • Regis produced 90koz over the March Q, adding $138m to its cash & bullion position to close with $367m (with no drawn debt) (RRL)

  • Alkane’s quarterly showed an increase of $11m to $51m, with production expected to come in at the lower end of the 70-80koz guidance for FY25 (ALK)

    • Alkane also reported assay results from underground expansion and pre-mine grade control drilling at Tomingley (ALK)

  • Lotus signed further binding uranium offtake agreements with a North American utility for 600klb over the 2026-29 period at a fixed price (LOT)

  • Santana’s application under the Fast-track Approvals Act will not be delivered on time, with a new timeline for submission completion by June 30 (SMI)

  • Indiana has received a final US$30m instalment from its settlement agreement with Tanzania, with it now awaiting an ATO ruling on distribution (IDA)

  • New Murchison Gold’s ore purchase agreement with Westgold has come into effect, with it currently working through regulatory approvals (NMG)

  • Bravo Mining filed its technical report for Luanga PGM+Au+Ni deposit (BRVO.TSXV)

  • Lindian commenced testwork for offtake & strategic investments with ANSTO, focusing on the production of a MREC product (LIN)

  • Great Boulder returned drilling from Eaglehawk, intercepting 3m @ 47g/t from 139m (GBR)

  • Saturn closed the March Q with $4.5m, having received firm commitments for a $23m raise post-quarter end (STN)

  • African Gold released assay results from the Poku trend at its Didievi gold project in Cote d’Ivoire (A1G)

  • Xanadu has withdrawn a resolution from its upcoming EGM relating to the 25% put option with Zijin, as the companies have extended the exclusivity term (XAM)

  • Australian Gold & Copper released new assay results from its Achilles prospect (AGC)

  • Frederic Mercier-Langevin has joined Patriot as its CDO/COO (PMT)

  • Kopernik has emerged as a 5.2% shareholder in Paladin (PDN)

  • Whitehaven Coal provided a new presentation

High Grade It

  • Commodity prices continued to collapse, collectively falling by 4.4%, for the biggest 2-day fall in almost 15 years (Bloomberg)

  • The ASX is set to plunge 4%, with the volatility index surging and the Aussie dollar falling to a 5-year low of US60.4c (AFR)

  • China launched a series of rapid and strong countermeasures to the US, including export controls on rare earth elements and new tariffs (Nation)

  • Hedge funds have been hit with the biggest margin calls since Covid shut down huge parts of the global economy in 2020 (FT)

  • Oil prices plunged nearly 8% to the lowest level since 2021, while copper & other commodities also fell as China retaliated against the US (Reuters)

  • The RBA will cut rates next month & at least once more this year as fears over Trump’s tariff regime forces central banks to ease policy further (AFR)

  • Donald Trump’s “liberation day” tariff blitz has sparked the biggest sell-off in the US junk bond market since 2020 (FT)

  • China placed export restrictions on rare earth elements on Friday as part of its sweeping response to US tariffs, squeezing supply (Reuters)

  • China says that its export controls on rare earths will not affect the stability of the international supply chain (Bloomberg)

  • Bellevue has missed out on the Trump-inspired rally for gold producers after it extended the trading halt on its shares (AFR), while WA’s safety regulator investigated it after an explosion in February (West)

  • Gold fell more than 3%, erasing gains from earlier last week, as investors sold off bullion to cover their losses from a wider market sell-off (Reuters)

  • Ongoing talks between Mines Minister David Michael & Glencore over mining royalties could determine the fate of WA’s last nickel hope & a 1000+ jobs (West)

  • BHP’s chief commercial officer said Chinese steel makers will maintain current production rates for several years & iron ore should remain above $80/t (AFR)

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Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Woodside entered into a binding agreement with Stonepeak for the sale of a 40% interest in Louisiana LNG Infrastructure (WDS)

  • Minerals 260 has completed the acquisition of Bullabulling (MI6)

  • Vulcan completed the acquisition of Geox, including its geothermal wells, renewable energy generation assets and a geothermal & lithium licence (VUL)

  • Impact Minerals advised they provided a conditional proposal to the administrators of Hipura Pty Ltd to acquire the company via a DOCA. The administrators have recommended accepting at the creditors’ meeting (IPT)

  • Rumble Resources entered into an agreement to acquire the outstanding 70% in 3 exploration tenements in the Fraser Range from its JV partner IGO to secure 100% of the Thunderstorm gold project (RTR)

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • Broken Hill Mines’ $94m reverse listing has been recut, with the offer being upsized to $20m (AFR)

  • Snowline Gold closed a C$20m raising at C$10.68/share (SGD.TSXV)

  • Buxton Resources received firm commitments to raise $3m via a placement (BUX)

  • Hamelin Gold received firm commitments to raise ~$2.8m via a placement, including participation from existing shareholder Gold Fields (HMG)

Word on the Decline

A Money Miner sent in this fresh pic of Hancock’s onshore gas project, which was acquired from MinRes last year. Can an O&G guru tell us if this means MinRes is any closer to getting the additional $327 million cash contingent on resource thresholds being reached?

With their US bonds trading substantially below par now, the market is suggesting MinRes may need every penny of it.

MinRes 2030 8.5% US Bond

Do you have some Word on the Decline? Reply to this email or shoot a message to [email protected] directly. We will always take your privacy seriously.

In the Weeds

  • Minerals Become Ultimate Bargaining Chip in Trump’s Diplomatic Deals (WSJ)

  • China shows the Rare Earth Nuke (Rare Earth Observer)

  • Coal traders could be rare winners from Trump's tariff turmoil (Reuters op-ed)

  • The relentless innovation fuelling China’s ‘brutal’ car wars (FT)

  • Board fights and mass resignations: The battle splitting the nation’s geoscientists (AFR)

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Today’s Top Tweet

Devil’s in the Detail

When Rio Tinto wasn’t named in Sovereign Metals’ recent $40 million raise, we heard on the grapevine that Rio had 20 days to decide if they would ‘top up’ and maintain their 20% pro-rata shareholding in the company.

But the investor rights agreement between Sovereign and Rio Tinto pretty explicitly says Rio would have made up their mind within the 20 days before launching the raise. It begs the question about Rio’s view of the project.

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