China Puts the Squeeze on Iron Ore

Rio scraps capital raise talk after investor pushback, L1 inches up on MinRes register

The Pre-Start

  • L1 Capital has lifted its stake in MinRes to 9.19% (MIN)

  • St Barbara downgraded guidance at Simberi, which has struggled to achieve targeted outcomes, with revised midpoints of 37.5koz @ A$4,150oz for the full year (SBM)

  • Centaurus secured an important environmental approval, giving it the ability to commence construction & paving the way to the issuance of the mining lease (CTM)

  • Sovereign Metals shared graphite purification results from Kasiya, confirming coarse flakes can be purified to a level suitable for higher margin applications (SVM)

  • Brazilian Critical Minerals shared results from an ISR column test, which saw recoveries range between 63% and 85% for Nd, Pr, Tb & Dy (BCM)

  • Winsome provided an update on its cesium mineralisation following further analysis, concluding the mineralisation is most likely pollucite (WR1)

  • Capstone Copper announced it’ll be included in the ASX 200, effective prior to March 24 (CSC)

  • WGX and OBM have both released new investor presentations to the market

  • Besra Gold has entered a trading halt given a ‘Cease Trade Order’ from the Ontario Securities Commission (BEZ)

  • Jervois confirmed its chapter 11 (bankruptcy) plans (JRV)

High Grade It

  • Years after oversupply and consumer uncertainty killed China’s property boom, Beijing is re-evaluating the steel industry that supplied it, with Australia’s iron ore exporters are in the firing line (AFR, and similarly AFR)

  • L1 Capital disclosed it bought more than 3.1m MinRes shares over the past few weeks, with it being the largest shareholder without the Ellison name (AFR)

  • Mali will resume granting permits for mineral exploration as of March 15 after the process was suspended more than 2 years ago (Bloomberg)

  • Barrick remains "fully engaged and committed to reaching a mutually beneficial resolution" with Mali to end their dispute, a shared memo showed (Reuters)

  • The Alberta government has indicated it will only approve underground steelmaking coal mines following the removal of a ban (Australian)

  • Disgruntled investors in Jervois called for an emergency shareholder meeting after an American court rejected attempts to derail a bankruptcy deal (AFR)

  • Treasurer Chalmers faces the prospect of having to intervene for a third time in the affairs of Northern Minerals, which cannot clarify the sovereignty of foreign interests (Australian)

  • Gerry Harvey is expanding his investment portfolio into lime & cement, becoming a major investor in ASX-listed, PNG-focused Mayur Resources (AFR)

  • China’s consumer inflation dropped far more than expected to fall below zero for the first time in 13 months, declining 0.7% from a year ago (Bloomberg)

  • The US is in exploratory discussions with the DRC about a possible deal giving it access to critical minerals (FT)

  • The DRC’s export ban on cobalt may not been enough to clear the glut, history shows (Reuters)

  • US senator John Hickenlooper reckons critical minerals need a Sputnik moment (MNN)

  • China's coal imports rose 2.1% year-on-year to a record high for the January-February period (Reuters)

  • China's unwrought copper imports declined by 7.2% year-on-year to 837kt in the first two months of 2025, due to increased domestic smelting capacity (Reuters)

Developing a mine? Check out the surface and underground mining specialists at Blue Cap Mining to see how they can help out

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Rio Tinto has scrapped plans to raise as much as US$5bn in a share sale following pushback from investors, according to sources (Bloomberg)

  • Navoi Mining, one of the world’s largest gold producers, is eyeing a potential London listing this year that could value the Uzbekistan state-backed miner at £4bn (Bloomberg)

  • Shares in Kenmare jumped 52% after former MD Michael Carvill teamed up with Abu Dhabi-based PE group Oryx Global to take over the miner, which said it had rejected a €565m deal with a 92% premium (Irish Times)

  • Cobre signed an earn-in agreement with BHP, which will see the major provide up to $40m in funding for exploration at Cobre’s Botswana projects (CBE, AFR)

  • Legacy Iron signed a deal with Bain Global Resources, who’ll finance all mining activities up to $10m under a deferred payment against profit-sharing arrangement over the Mt Celia gold mine (LCY)

  • Eclipse Metals & Boss Energy entered into a binding option agreement over the Liverpool uranium project, whereby Boss could earn up to 80% should it provide up to $8m in exploration funding over 7 years (EPM)

  • Voluntary administrators for Centrex have commenced a sale and/or recap process (CXM)

  • The takeover offer period for Astral’s takeover of Maximus has been extended to 21 March (MXR) Astral had 76.7% of MXR as at 6 Mar

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • Rimfire is in a trading halt pending a capital raising (RIM) late Friday, the company revealed the arbitrator is considering a request by GPR to defer the hearing

Word on the Decline

  • Do you remember the Bloomberg rumour late last year that South African coal miner Exxaro had discussed acquiring Jupiter MinesTshipi?

  • Well… we heard the other manganese project on the shopping list for Exxaro is Kalagadi Manganese. That’s if there’s a way to overcome the operation’s substantial indebtedness from IDC

Do you have some Word on the Decline? Reply to this email or shoot a message to [email protected] directly. We will always take your privacy seriously.

In the Weeds

  • US storm in a copper mug (MNN)

  • Gina Rinehart hangs mural of herself and Peter Dutton (AFR’s Rear Window)

  • World’s biggest miners cut back on exploration investment (FT)

  • Victor Smorgon’s star fundie eyes 50pc returns for new fund (AFR) 20% allocation to gold

  • From Rare Earths to Broader Metals: Mick Davies Interview (Spotify, Apple)

  • Why silver is the new gold (Economist)

  • Dutton’s nuclear gamble short on detail, but voters don’t seem to care (AFR)

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Today’s Top Tweet

Devil’s in the Detail

As Arcadium has now been engulfed by Rio Tinto, we realised we never actually read the juicy parts of the scheme booklet….

And don’t we regret it! There was another party that put something to Arcadium six weeks before Rio Tinto. “Party A” proposed contributing certain assets to Arcadium for a majority stake in the company. Later they said a minority stake. But the proposals never went further than that.

So... who is “Party A”??

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