Bellevue IS Raising $175m...

Gina creeps on Lynas while Goldies hit guidance

The Pre-Start

  • Northern Star sold 439koz gold at an AISC of A$1,815/oz. Just scraped in within guidance by 21koz and $7/oz AISC for FY24 (NST)…Jundee grade lifted but was impacted by a mill fire and Pogo sold 91koz (up from average 62koz in previous qtrs).

  • Sandfire produced 37.2kt copper eq. in the June Q (12% higher qoq) closing the quarter with net debt US$396m (SFR)

    Gott say, the miners have really improved their waterfall game this Q

  • Fortescue shipped 54Mt iron ore in the qtr (FMG) eyes on Iron Bridge water issues where they have begun banking water to avoid replacing the high-pressure section of the pipeline

  • Gina Rinehart has added to her stake in Lynas to 7.1% (LYC) Can anyone intro us to Australia’s richest woman? About time she came on the poddy we reckon

  • Teck hit record copper production of 110kt in the quarter as QB ramped up (TECK) & authorised a US$2.75 billion buy-back with EVR proceeds

  • Endeavour Silver says its Terronera project in Mexico is 77% complete, having spent US$204 million and production planned for Q4 (EDR.TO)

  • Vizsla Silver suggests its Panuco project in Mexico can deliver an IRR of 86% and NPV5 of US$1.1 billion from capex US$244m in a PEA (VZLA)

  • Snowline Gold hit 405m at 2.3g/t Au inc. 101m at 4.7g/t Au at their Rogue project in Yukon (SGD.V) In the aftermath of the heap leach failure at Eagle Mine last month, SGD confirms it has “adjusted” its exploration program in response to First Nations concerns…

  • Newmont delivered net income of US$857m on US$1.4b of operating CF, producing 1.6Moz & 477k gold equivalent oz’s (Cu, Ag, Pb, Zn)(NEM)

  • Regis produced 106koz at an AISC of $2,247/oz. Cash & bullion closed at $295m; $50m spent on capex, $16m on exploration/McPhillamys (RRL)

  • Coronado delivered ROM production of 7.4Mt with 4.1Mt in sales. Mining costs were $91/t, selling at $195/t, ending net debt of $5m (CRN)

  • Karoon revised its capital allocation framework & launched a US$25m on-market buyback, looking to appease disgruntled holders (KAR)

  • Sayona produced 50kt of SC5.3 with unit costs of US$995/t, though it sold 28kt with $25m in revenue. Cash fell $8m to $91m (SYA)

  • Syrah continued its track record of never making money in a single quarter - cash flow from operations negative US$26 million (SYR)

  • De Grey appointed Geoff Fenton as GM of operations for Hemi (DEG)

  • Peninsula finished the quarter with $100m after spending $14m at Lance (PEN)

  • Sovereign Metals mined a test pit at their Kasiya deposit as PFS workstreams are optimised with Rio Tinto involvement (SVM)

  • Fenix say they can produce 1.5 dmt iron ore per annum for 7 years from Beebyn-W11 for an NPV10 of $151 million (FEX)

High Grade It

  • Pilbara CEO Dale Henderson said the lithium market appears to have reached its new floor price as supply comes out of the market (AFR) Time will tell, with Mt Holland, Goulamina & Pilgangoora adding tonnes

  • Russia's Nornickel is in talks with several Chinese battery companies to build a plant jointly producing nickel material from Russian semi-finished products (Reuters)

  • FMG’s restructure goes far beyond backroom duplication across energy & mining, with layers of management being cut (The Australian)

  • Teck beat second-quarter profit estimates on Wednesday, helped by higher production of copper at its Quebrada Blanca (Reuters)

  • West African shares gain after tracking top end of guidance (CB)

  • Iluka Resources shares plunge as analysts trim forecasts (CB)

  • BHP must stop funding legal action to halt Mariana dam claim, court rules (MW)

  • The WA government, business & miners are urging the Albanese government not to do a deal with the Greens on upcoming enviro law (AFR)

  • Vedanta is looking for partners to boost output at the Zambian copper assets it’s regaining control of after years of legal battles (Bloomberg)

  • Global coal demand is set to remain flat this year & next as higher electricity demand offsets rapid expansion of solar and wind (Reuters)

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Japan’s sixth-largest electricity retailer, Chugoku Electric, is close to selling its 10% stake in NSW’s Boggabri coal mine (AFR)

  • First Quantum reached an agreement with Jiangxi Copper, its second-largest shareholder, stopping it from buying more shares (Bloomberg)

  • Unico Silver has completed its acquisition of the Sierra Blanca project in Argentina (USL)

  • Diatreme have finally hit the +90% compulsory acquisition threshold for their acquisition of Metallica (DRX)

  • Leo Lithium increased the amount of cash to be distributed from proceeds of the Goulamina sale, with first distribution in Jan 25’ (LLL)

  • Westgold announced that Karora obtained a final order from the Ontario Superior Court approving the takeover (WGX)

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • Bellevue raising up to $175m at $1.55 via an Insto placement and SPP to partially repay debt and accelerate growth (BGL)… be interesting to see how “green” the power upgrades will be

  • Peak have signed a non-binding term sheet with Shenghe for 50% of a Peak subsidiary which holds 84% of the Ngualla rare earths project (PEK) Shenghe will sort any remaining capex with a debt facility

  • Terramin’s largest shareholder, Azipac, has extended its finance facility to 2025 as the company awaits a Supreme Court hearing in Oct (TZN) their Bird in Hand gold project in the Adelaide Hills was knocked back

  • Arafura launched a fully underwritten two-tranche $20m placement and $7m SPP to fund development of its Nolans rare earth project (ARU)

    ARU_Meme

    A gargantuan task getting the debt firmed-up but the equity ain’t gonna be easy

Word on the Decline

We noticed Euroz Hartleys re-initiate coverage on $2.9 billion gold developer, De Grey yesterday. And given DEG has A$867 million cash at 30 June, we don’t think the broker is gunning for a juicy ECM fee any time soon. So we read the thesis with less cynical eyes than we usually would:

We believe that DEG is under serve risk of a takeover off, particularly in the next 6 months, post final approvals and before the start of construction, which is scheduled for the end of CY24.

Michael Scantlebury, Euroz Hartleys

Calling for a takeover within a 6-month timeframe is a bold call. So naturally we wonder if there’s some Word on the Decline underpinning Scants’ view? He explicitly points to Newmont’s definition of Tier 1 to support it.

The research note throws into the mix the possibility that De Grey acquires Gold Road using the SLR / RED playbook (a scheme where the aquirer has a “fiduciary out” too) to force the hand of any interested parties to bid for De Grey if they really want the asset.

Let’s see how the short-term unfolds for De Grey. We think a takeover would be a terrific outcome for shareholders rather than wearing single asset development risk going it alone.

Do you have some Word on the Decline? Reply to this email or shoot a message to [email protected] directly. We will always take your privacy seriously.

In the Weeds

  • Forget LTR, LYC and ARU, Gina hasn’t lost sight of the commodities that actually make money. Remember the Grassy Mountain met coal project she acquired that got rug-pulled by the government in Alberta? The lobbying effort is still strong if you watch this interview

  • Can the natural diamond market regain sparkle? (FT)

  • The Chinese are testing the possibilities of a complete meltdown-proof reactor (New Scientist)

  • The Coalition will consider buying reactors from South Korea as part of its plan to build seven nuclear power stations (AFR)

  • MinRes under Chris Ellison is a giant, heaving boys club” (The Australian’s Margin Call)

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Today’s Top Tweet

“The trend is your friend” - jks if you’re reading this newsletter you’re fading this trend already

Devil’s in the Detail

Who would’ve thought the infamous waterfall chart would have so many applications, now used for water inventory by 29 Metals in their recent quarterly presentation.

To get into the Olympics spirit, 3.7 gigalitres is equivalent to almost 1,500 Olympic size swimming pools (or roughly 1,500 Get Wet bladders if, like us, you denominate in those)

29M Waterfall

On another note, Pilbara’s cash balance is looking a bit slim this quarter courtesy of a units typo.

PLS Quarterly

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All information in this newsletter is for education and entertainment purposes only and is of general nature only. The hosts of Money of Mine are not financial professionals. Money of Mine are not aware of your personal financial circumstances. Before making any investment decision, you should consult a licensed financial, legal or tax professional, along with considering any relevant Product Disclosure Statement. Money of Mine does not operate under an Australian financial services licence and relies on the exemption available under the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth) in respect of any information or advice given. Money of Mine strives to ensure the accuracy and currency of the information contained in this newsletter but we do not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, reliable or up to date. Any views expressed by the hosts of Money of Mine are their opinion only and may contain forward looking statements that may not eventuate. Money of Mine will not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of information in this newsletter.

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