Pressure Mounts at MinRes as Stock Drops

BHP called out in UK court over Samarco behaviour, NRW signs bumper Stanmore contract

The Pre-Start

  • MAC produced ~10.2kt Cu at a cash cost of US$2.71/lb at the CSA copper mine, on track for mid-point of CY24 guidance 40.5kt Cu, finishing the quarter with ~US$131m net debt (after the A$150m cap raise in Oct) (MAC) Cash essentially down slightly QoQ excluding impact of the cap raise

  • Stanmore had saleable production of 3.8Mt, above annualised rates, and closed with net debt of US$28m after numerous one-off payments (SMR)

  • Vault Minerals released an updated group R&R of 12.3Moz and 3.4Moz respectively as at 30 June (VAU)

  • Polymetals finished the quarter with $4.5m, having agreed to offtake funding to restart the Endeavor mine with trader Ocean Partners for ~$30m (POL)

  • Iluka produced Z/R/SR totalling 138kt (sales 97kt) & 108kt Ilmenite (sales 19kt) with unit revenue down slightly qoq. Government discussions continue re Eneabba funding (ILU) Down 4% on open

  • Deep Yellow ended the quarter with ~$247m cash, with Tumas workstreams on track to make a final investment decision in late Q4 2024 (DYL)

  • BCI Minerals’ Mardie Salt project is 50% completed, with cumulative spend of $788m, leaving $177m cash & equivalents. First debt drawdown expected Q3 FY25 (BCI)

  • NRW signed a mining services agreement with Stanmore at South Walker Creek, valued at $1.6b over a 5-year term, commencing Jan 2026 (NWH)

  • Sheffield shipped 122kt of ilmenite while the KMS JV received a US$14m offtake prepayment from Yansteel following Q end, after finishing with $9m, with the KMS JV holding $5.6m (this figure lessened by $10m over the Q) (SFX) Down 7%

  • St Barbara had a few updates:

    • Advised a pumped hydro energy storage facility is technically feasible at Touquoy, with work now focused on testing commercial viability (SBM)

    • Following a successful trial of sorting tech, SBM is undertaking an evaluation of an alternative design approach to process gold ore from Cochrane Hill through the proposed 15-Mile process plant (SBM)

  • Magnetite Mines launched a consortium involving Aurizon, Flinders Port & GHD to collaborate on unlocking South Australian magnetite reserves (MGT)

  • Sunstone shared an initial gold-copper resource of 1.2Moz AuEq at El Palmar, from 64Mt at 0.6g/t AuEq using a .4g/t cut-off on the porphyry orebody (STM)

  • Caravel entered into an option agreement to secure groundwater extraction licences to support the development of its WA copper project (CVV)

  • Talisman provided an update following MinResWonmunna commentary, over which TLM has a royalty, indicating c. 4 years of anticipated production (TLM)

  • Lotus finished the quarter with $25m, exclusive of $14m restricted cash (LOT)

  • A shareholder of AuKing has put forward a board tilt, proposing to remove two directors under Section 249D and appoint two others (AKN)

High Grade It

  • Former MinRes chair Peter Wade failed to disclose a 10-year tax evasion scheme established by Chris Ellison that enriched them while costing shareholders (AFR)

  • More than $1b has been wiped off the market value of MinRes as its shares were pummelled in the wake of founder & boss Chris Ellison’s admission to a “serious lapse of judgment” (West) MINs trading down another 4% this morning

  • Global smelting activity picked up in September, with China leading the way (MiningNews)

  • BHP is “cynically & doggedly” shirking responsibility for the Samarco dam disaster according to allegations aired in court (AFR)

  • WA’s workplace safety regulator WorkSafe has initiated legal action against WA miners over work fatalities (BN)

  • Saudi Aramco is bullish on China’s oil consumption after the government introduced a raft of stimulus measures (Bloomberg)

  • Court told that Fortescue allegedly destroyed nearly 250 Aboriginal heritage sites within the Solomon Hub mine footprint (BN)

  • Prices of iron ore futures rose as near-term demand remained firm and the latest rate cut in top consumer China lifted sentiment (Reuters)

  • Domestic gas users should be prioritised as east coast shortfalls loom: BlueScope (Australian)

  • China will account for less than half of global steel consumption in 2024 for the first time in 6 years (Bloomberg)

  • Expanding coal mines and reaching net zero? Tanya Plibersek seems to believe both are possible (The Conversation) now compare that to Javier Blaslatest column in Bloomberg titled “The Energy Transition Is Powered By — Wait for It — Coal”

  • Energy executives say the development of nuclear power in Australia will be too slow to replace ageing coal-fired power plants (AFR)

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Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • The usual suspects are named as potential buyers of a stake in MinRes’ Perth Basin: Hancock, Beach & Mitsui or a wild card being Strike Energy (Australian)

  • Sanjeev Gupta attempts to raise more debt for Whyalla operations (AFR)

  • Lithium Energy advised the completion of the sale of its interest in the Solaroz lithium brine project in Argentina to CNNET has been extended by 60 days to satisfy remaining conditions (LEL)

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • Dataroom reported that MinRes could be forced to raise up to $2b of equity should their rot continue (Australian)

  • Aris Mining announced the launch of a US$400m senior notes offering to fund the redemption of its outstanding notes and working capital (ARIS.TSX)

  • Cannindah raised $5m to drill the Mt Cannindah copper gold project in Queensland and test nearby IP anomalies (CAE)

  • Elevate Uranium announced a $25m cap raise to further Koppies (EL8)

  • AuMEGA announced a C$16.3m raise, with B2Gold chipping in (AAM)

  • Tolu Minerals is in trading halt pending a capital raising (TOK)

Word on the Decline

  • We've done our fair share of speculating on which deal we're likely to see Regis embark on next. So why not continue...

  • Word on the decline is Regis' commentary on the potential of going to North America is rather loose compared to the "definitely not going there" other miners respond with.

  • We wouldn't be surprised if management is warming to an opportunity over the ditch. We doubt the market would be supportive of a full change of control. But what about a strategic placement instead?

Do you have some Word on the Decline? Reply to this email or shoot a message to [email protected] directly. We will always take your privacy seriously.

In the Weeds

  • The Koala’s visit to Goma and the Bisie Tin mine (Substack) interesting way to think of the “jurisdictional risk” of North Kivu, DRC

  • Dryblower reckons the sky’s the limit as middle America rushes into gold (MiningNews)

  • Former poddie guest Guy Keller from Tribeca provided a great overview of the current nuclear energy situation (JMM) Watch from 3:30

  • September quarter fund performance (MrQuick) Review of Aussie fund performance

  • BHP and Rio Tinto are heading in different directions (Economist)

  • Praetorian Capital Q3 Fund Letter - Commentary on precious’, uranium & an alternative way to play commodities

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Today’s Top Tweet

Devil’s in the Detail

MinRes Announcement

Wouldn’t it just be poetic if the MinRes board appointed Minter Ellison to investigate Mr Ellison?

Separately, does anyone have any word on when the Guinea Ministry of Mines & Geology’s Cadastre will open up again? According to Predictive’s quarterly, it sounds like it’s still closed for the moment. Its temporary closure was initially announced by PDI back in August. Hopefully, it’s back to regular programming.

PDI Announcement

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Chris Ellison Confirms Tax Evasion: What Next for MinRes? (52 min)

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