MAC Launches Bumper $140M Capital Raise

Metals retreat on lack of extensive Chinese stimulus + KoBold Metals locks in a US$500m raise

The Pre-Start

  • Atlantic Lithium has been issued a mine operating permit for its Ewoyaa lithium project in Ghana (A11)

  • GreenX reported a successful outcome from its international arbitration claims against the Republic of Poland, with the company being awarded A$490m in compensation (GRX) the stock is up 30%

  • Robex Resources is on track to pour first gold from Kiniero in Q4 25’, with all long lead items ordered and an updated feasibility scheduled for Q1 25 (RBX.TO)

  • Elevate Uranium updated its resource at Koppies, to a total of 157Mt @ 192ppm for 66.1Mlb U3O8 (EL8)

  • Aussie Super has picked up some more South32, taking its stake to 6.1% (S32)

  • Warriedar finished the quarter with $6.2m cash after raising $4m and selling its Golden Range camp assets to Fenix for $2m, air-core drilling underway and RC drilling scheduled for Nov ‘24 (WA8)

  • From the drill bit:

    • Polymetals Endeavour project hit 67.1m @ 1.04 g/t Au, 395 g/t Ag, 7.19% Zn and 4.57% Pb from 66m (POL)

    • Strickland’s Rogonza project hit 545.7m @ 0.6g/t Au, 0.1% Cu, 0.2% Zn, 0.2% Pb and 5.6g/t Ag from 108m (STK)

High Grade It

  • Iron ore and stocks suffered a brutal reversal as China hopes dashed (AFR)

  • China is confident in reaching its economic targets this year & promised to support growth, though it held back on more major stimulus (Bloomberg)

  • Chinese stock rally cools after Beijing holds off on fiscal stimulus (FT)

  • Gina Rinehart has dramatically scaled back plans for her next big iron ore mine at Mulga Downs as ESG factors hit (AFR)

  • All eyes on Bellevue Gold as heritage challenge brews in wake of explosive Regis Resources rejection (West)

  • Liontown COO says they’ll look to Pilbara Minerals for inspiration as the company navigates commodity price turmoil (BN)

  • World’s biggest investors: Investors need to adopt a new approach to the mining sector if that industry is to meet the growing demand (Bloomberg)

  • The Vales Point power plant owner has asked for an urgent change in the rules for the energy market so it can provide cash instead of a bank guarantee (AFR)

  • Zijin Mining’s Norton Gold Fields failed to turn a profit last year thanks partly to more debt and maintenance costs (West)

  • Brent crude surges above $80 as conflict and storm spark supply fears (FT)

  • Aussie investors are happy for Rio & BHP to hunt for Argentinian assets, in the belief a pro-business government and proven links to North American markets counter its reputation for sovereign risk (AFR)

Wheelin’ n Dealin’

  • Paladin obtained a final order from the BC Supreme Court, approving the plan of arrangement, though Investment Canada Act clearance remains (PDN)

  • Queensland copper hopeful Cannindah Resources advised they received a proposal from Codelco to conduct DD over their Mt Cannindah project (CAE)

  • Zeta is finally out of suspension, selling their 45% interest in the Koumbi bauxite project for ~US$41m to Alliance Mining Commodities (the 45% project operator) (ZER) This should more than cover the funding requirement for their DOCA proposal to acquire Panoramic

    • Separately, it looks like Zeta’s privatisation process by its 2 major shareholders, UIL and GPLP (together 95%) at NTA has kicked off

  • Indonesian state-controlled miner Antam acquired a 30% stake worth US$102m in a smelter owned by a subsidiary of Chinese stainless steel giant Tsingshan (Reuters)

  • Woodside has completed its acquisition of Tellurian in the United States (WDS)

Rattlin’ the Tin

  • Metals Acquisition Corp is raising $140m at $18/share (CDI) to de-lever the balance sheet & retire its US$145m mezzanine debt facility (MAC) inorganic growth also stated in the use-of-funds and lead managers on the ticket that suggest M&A could be near too

  • Private exploration & development company KoBold Metals has raised US$491m, which is rumoured to value the business near US$2b (TechCrunch)

  • TSX-listed Allied Gold closed a C$192m equity raising (JMN)

  • Global Atomic raised its offering to C$35m as it looks to develop its Dasa project in Niger (GLO.TO)

  • Neometals is in a trading halt pending a capital raise (NMT)

  • White Cliff Minerals saw John Hancock cornerstone a $5m placement (WCN)

Word on the Decline

  • If our intel is accurate, Albemarle could be reconsidering its downstream presence in Australia altogether. That’s right, the future of their Kemerton lithium hydroxide facility is in doubt entirely...

  • Cast your mind back to August 1st, Albemarle said they would stop construction at Train 3, idle production at Train 2 and place it on care and maintenance but focus on the ramp-up and qualification of Train 1

  • Then, last week it was reported that Albemarle was putting its unfinished Paris Grove village up for sale

  • And we think the future of Train 1 itself is in serious doubt. Remember, Trains 1 and 2 were completed in 2022 and Albemarle still refers to Train 1 as “ramping up”…

  • If our intel is accurate, Albemarle will simply ship the spodumene concentrate to its China facilities, where operating costs are much more competitive. So much for the future of the downstream industry in Australia!

Do you have some Word on the Decline? Reply to this email or shoot a message to [email protected] directly. We will always take your privacy seriously.

In the Weeds

  • A handy explainer of the different mining methods for the finance folks like most of us: Understanding Mining Methods: Key Concepts for Investors (RCF’s Fraser Perry)

  • Goehring & Rozencwajg Natural Resources market commentary (G&R)

  • China fails to ‘feed the monster’ with stimulus fizzer (AFR’s Chanticleer)

  • The Era of Rolling Blowouts, China, Oil, Gold (Paulo Macro)

  • China Giveth, China Rug-Pulleth” - Le Shrub: China Wars: Return of the Contras

  • Energy transition story rekindles fund interest in metals (Reuters op-ed)

  • Is China simply juicing stocks to make consumers feel better? (AFR)

  • Could war in the Gulf push oil to $100 a barrel? (Economist)

  • Fortescue celebrates 20 years (YouTube)

  • Why Australian miners are feeling anxious (AFR op-ed)

  • How this Aussie mining tech company is doing its bit for the planet (AFR Awards)

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Today’s Top Tweet

Devil’s in the Detail

JP Morgan updated its outlook on the commodity sector overnight and to be fair, there are not many miners that the investment bank remains optimistic about. On lithium specifically:

The sector has front-run a commodity bounce, which hasn’t occurred yet.

JP Morgan

Here’s the TLDR on the sector

JP Morgan snip

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